Maryland’s 5th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic Party. The open race after longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement drew a crowded Democratic primary, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won decisively in June 2026 with endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders; forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic based on the district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris Chaffee faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a large registration advantage. Realistic challenges to the leading outcome would require a significant late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established partisan lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-05 House Election Winner
MD-05 House Election Winner
$17,978 Vol.
$17,978 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$17,978 Vol.
$17,978 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,736 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$9,242 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic Party. The open race after longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement drew a crowded Democratic primary, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won decisively in June 2026 with endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders; forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic based on the district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris Chaffee faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a large registration advantage. Realistic challenges to the leading outcome would require a significant late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic Party. The open race after longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement drew a crowded Democratic primary, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won decisively in June 2026 with endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders; forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic based on the district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris Chaffee faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a large registration advantage. Realistic challenges to the leading outcome would require a significant late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established partisan lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 5th Congressional District remains a solidly Democratic seat, reflected in the market’s 94.5% consensus for the Democratic Party. The open race after longtime incumbent Steny Hoyer’s retirement drew a crowded Democratic primary, which state Delegate Adrian Boafo won decisively in June 2026 with endorsements from Hoyer, Governor Wes Moore, and other party leaders; forecasters rate the general election Solid Democratic based on the district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Republican nominee Chris Chaffee faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats hold a large registration advantage. Realistic challenges to the leading outcome would require a significant late-breaking scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unprecedented national political realignment capable of overcoming the district’s established partisan lean.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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