Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and others place the AfD narrowly ahead of the SPD at 36-38% versus 33-34% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the CDU at 7%, the Left near 10%, and smaller parties below or near the 5% threshold. The September 20 election follows the AfD’s strong Saxony-Anhalt result, yet the SPD benefits from high personal approval for incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by wide margins in direct preference surveys. This tight head-to-head dynamic, combined with historical volatility in eastern state votes and potential for tactical voting or late shifts, supports trader pricing that favors narrow victory margins for either the AfD or SPD while assigning substantial probability to outcomes where neither secures the largest share. Upcoming final campaign events and turnout patterns remain key variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 0-2% 39%
AfD 2-5% 35%
AfD 5-10% 32%
SPD 0-2% 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
AfD 10%+
30%
AfD 5-10%
32%
AfD 2-5%
35%
AfD 0-2%
39%
SPD 0-2%
31%
SPD 2-5%
25%
SPD 5-10%
15%
SPD 10%+
9%
AfD 0-2% 39%
AfD 2-5% 35%
AfD 5-10% 32%
SPD 0-2% 31%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
AfD 10%+
$0 Vol.
30%
AfD 5-10%
$0 Vol.
32%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Vol.
35%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Vol.
39%
SPD 0-2%
$0 Vol.
31%
SPD 2-5%
$0 Vol.
25%
SPD 5-10%
$0 Vol.
15%
SPD 10%+
$28 Vol.
9%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and others place the AfD narrowly ahead of the SPD at 36-38% versus 33-34% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the CDU at 7%, the Left near 10%, and smaller parties below or near the 5% threshold. The September 20 election follows the AfD’s strong Saxony-Anhalt result, yet the SPD benefits from high personal approval for incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by wide margins in direct preference surveys. This tight head-to-head dynamic, combined with historical volatility in eastern state votes and potential for tactical voting or late shifts, supports trader pricing that favors narrow victory margins for either the AfD or SPD while assigning substantial probability to outcomes where neither secures the largest share. Upcoming final campaign events and turnout patterns remain key variables before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Volume
$28End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and others place the AfD narrowly ahead of the SPD at 36-38% versus 33-34% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the CDU at 7%, the Left near 10%, and smaller parties below or near the 5% threshold. The September 20 election follows the AfD’s strong Saxony-Anhalt result, yet the SPD benefits from high personal approval for incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by wide margins in direct preference surveys. This tight head-to-head dynamic, combined with historical volatility in eastern state votes and potential for tactical voting or late shifts, supports trader pricing that favors narrow victory margins for either the AfD or SPD while assigning substantial probability to outcomes where neither secures the largest share. Upcoming final campaign events and turnout patterns remain key variables before resolution.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than AfD or SPD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$28End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from Infratest dimap, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, and others place the AfD narrowly ahead of the SPD at 36-38% versus 33-34% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with the CDU at 7%, the Left near 10%, and smaller parties below or near the 5% threshold. The September 20 election follows the AfD’s strong Saxony-Anhalt result, yet the SPD benefits from high personal approval for incumbent Minister President Manuela Schwesig, who leads her AfD challenger by wide margins in direct preference surveys. This tight head-to-head dynamic, combined with historical volatility in eastern state votes and potential for tactical voting or late shifts, supports trader pricing that favors narrow victory margins for either the AfD or SPD while assigning substantial probability to outcomes where neither secures the largest share. Upcoming final campaign events and turnout patterns remain key variables before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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