AfD leads polls by wide margins in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and September 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent that positions the party to secure the largest share of seats in both Landtage. In Berlin on September 20, AfD trails or runs closer to other parties in available surveys, reducing its prospects for a plurality there. The combination of sustained regional strength in the east, the 5 percent electoral threshold shaping seat allocation, and the absence of major late shifts in voter sentiment explains why traders assign the highest probability to AfD finishing first in exactly two of the three contests. Other outcomes would require either an unexpected Berlin surge or underperformance in one eastern state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 80%
3 10.4%
1 10.3%
0 <1%
$61,013 Vol.
$61,013 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
10%
2
80%
3
10%
2 80%
3 10.4%
1 10.3%
0 <1%
$61,013 Vol.
$61,013 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$6,218 Vol.
<1%
1
$14,109 Vol.
10%
2
$23,857 Vol.
80%
3
$16,829 Vol.
10%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and September 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent that positions the party to secure the largest share of seats in both Landtage. In Berlin on September 20, AfD trails or runs closer to other parties in available surveys, reducing its prospects for a plurality there. The combination of sustained regional strength in the east, the 5 percent electoral threshold shaping seat allocation, and the absence of major late shifts in voter sentiment explains why traders assign the highest probability to AfD finishing first in exactly two of the three contests. Other outcomes would require either an unexpected Berlin surge or underperformance in one eastern state.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$61,013End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and September 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent that positions the party to secure the largest share of seats in both Landtage. In Berlin on September 20, AfD trails or runs closer to other parties in available surveys, reducing its prospects for a plurality there. The combination of sustained regional strength in the east, the 5 percent electoral threshold shaping seat allocation, and the absence of major late shifts in voter sentiment explains why traders assign the highest probability to AfD finishing first in exactly two of the three contests. Other outcomes would require either an unexpected Berlin surge or underperformance in one eastern state.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$61,013End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads polls by wide margins in the eastern states of Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of their September 6 and September 20 votes, with support near or above 40 percent that positions the party to secure the largest share of seats in both Landtage. In Berlin on September 20, AfD trails or runs closer to other parties in available surveys, reducing its prospects for a plurality there. The combination of sustained regional strength in the east, the 5 percent electoral threshold shaping seat allocation, and the absence of major late shifts in voter sentiment explains why traders assign the highest probability to AfD finishing first in exactly two of the three contests. Other outcomes would require either an unexpected Berlin surge or underperformance in one eastern state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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