Recent polling from INSA and Infratest dimap places the AfD at a stable 35–36% ahead of the September 20, 2026, Landtag election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, well short of the roughly 50% vote share typically required for an absolute majority of the 71 seats under proportional representation and the 5% threshold. The SPD trails at 28–29%, with the Left, CDU, and smaller parties dividing the remainder and limiting overhang or leveling effects that could boost AfD representation. Traders assign the implied 97.5% probability to “No” based on this consistent multi-month trend and the absence of major late catalysts capable of shifting voter blocs or turnout patterns enough to close the gap. A sudden AfD surge above 45%, widespread failure of minor parties to clear the threshold, or an unforeseen scandal altering participation could still alter seat projections before election day.