Republican Bob Onder holds a commanding position in Missouri's 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The incumbent secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024. Redistricting adjustments incorporating areas around Columbia have not altered the underlying partisan composition enough to create a competitive environment, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings labeling the seat solidly Republican. Democratic nominee Bethany Mann advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have maintained double-digit advantages. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for this baseline while leaving room for late developments such as major candidate-specific events or unanticipated turnout shifts to narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$21,180 Vol.
$21,180 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$21,180 Vol.
$21,180 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$6,172 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$15,008 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Bob Onder holds a commanding position in Missouri's 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The incumbent secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024. Redistricting adjustments incorporating areas around Columbia have not altered the underlying partisan composition enough to create a competitive environment, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings labeling the seat solidly Republican. Democratic nominee Bethany Mann advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have maintained double-digit advantages. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for this baseline while leaving room for late developments such as major candidate-specific events or unanticipated turnout shifts to narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Bob Onder holds a commanding position in Missouri's 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The incumbent secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024. Redistricting adjustments incorporating areas around Columbia have not altered the underlying partisan composition enough to create a competitive environment, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings labeling the seat solidly Republican. Democratic nominee Bethany Mann advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have maintained double-digit advantages. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for this baseline while leaving room for late developments such as major candidate-specific events or unanticipated turnout shifts to narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,180End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Bob Onder holds a commanding position in Missouri's 3rd congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election. The incumbent secured his party's nomination in the August 4 primary and benefits from the district's consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including a 61% margin in 2024. Redistricting adjustments incorporating areas around Columbia have not altered the underlying partisan composition enough to create a competitive environment, as reflected in nonpartisan ratings labeling the seat solidly Republican. Democratic nominee Bethany Mann advanced from her primary but faces structural headwinds in a district where Republican candidates have maintained double-digit advantages. Trader consensus at 91.5% for the Republican nominee accounts for this baseline while leaving room for late developments such as major candidate-specific events or unanticipated turnout shifts to narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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