Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican partisan lean reflected in its R+21 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The Democratic nominee, Jeffrey Hulum III, emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Republicans have dominated general election results. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting history and absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the balance. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given established patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMS-04 House Election Winner
MS-04 House Election Winner
$39,877 Vol.
$39,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
97%
Democratic Party
3%
$39,877 Vol.
$39,877 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$24,797 Vol.
97%
Democratic Party
$15,080 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican partisan lean reflected in its R+21 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The Democratic nominee, Jeffrey Hulum III, emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Republicans have dominated general election results. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting history and absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the balance. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given established patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,877End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican partisan lean reflected in its R+21 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The Democratic nominee, Jeffrey Hulum III, emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Republicans have dominated general election results. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting history and absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the balance. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given established patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MS-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,877End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Ezell secured his party's nomination in the March 2026 primary with over 84 percent of the vote in Mississippi's 4th congressional district, which carries a strong Republican partisan lean reflected in its R+21 Cook PVI and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The Democratic nominee, Jeffrey Hulum III, emerged from a low-turnout primary but faces structural disadvantages in a district where Republicans have dominated general election results. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the race Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting history and absence of competitive polling or late developments that would alter the balance. A major scandal, health issue, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the outcome, though such shifts remain improbable given established patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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