Jason Statham’s mid-budget action thriller Mutiny opened to a soft $2.8 million Friday in roughly 2,700 theaters, locking in trader consensus for a sub-$8 million domestic weekend at 98.8% implied probability. Pre-release tracking of $8–12 million was revised sharply lower after an Amazon Prime leak days before release, mixed reviews highlighting formulaic plotting, and competition from Insidious: Out of the Further in a crowded late-summer frame. The film’s projected $7.4–7.5 million finish beats Statham’s earlier 2026 release Shelter but reflects typical performance for his recent Lionsgate titles amid audience fragmentation and piracy concerns. An upset above $8 million would require unusually strong Saturday-Sunday holds or major estimate revisions, scenarios viewed as remote given current data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated“Mutiny” Opening Weekend Box Office
“Mutiny” Opening Weekend Box Office
<8m 98.8%
8-9m 1.0%
9-10m <1%
10-11m <1%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<8m
99%
8-9m
1%
9-10m
<1%
10-11m
<1%
11m+
<1%
<8m 98.8%
8-9m 1.0%
9-10m <1%
10-11m <1%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
Aug 23, 2026
<8m
$11,529 Vol.
99%
8-9m
$4,064 Vol.
1%
9-10m
$1,889 Vol.
<1%
10-11m
$1,497 Vol.
<1%
11m+
$1,232 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Mutiny" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Jason Statham’s mid-budget action thriller Mutiny opened to a soft $2.8 million Friday in roughly 2,700 theaters, locking in trader consensus for a sub-$8 million domestic weekend at 98.8% implied probability. Pre-release tracking of $8–12 million was revised sharply lower after an Amazon Prime leak days before release, mixed reviews highlighting formulaic plotting, and competition from Insidious: Out of the Further in a crowded late-summer frame. The film’s projected $7.4–7.5 million finish beats Statham’s earlier 2026 release Shelter but reflects typical performance for his recent Lionsgate titles amid audience fragmentation and piracy concerns. An upset above $8 million would require unusually strong Saturday-Sunday holds or major estimate revisions, scenarios viewed as remote given current data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Mutiny" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$20,211End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Mutiny" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Jason Statham’s mid-budget action thriller Mutiny opened to a soft $2.8 million Friday in roughly 2,700 theaters, locking in trader consensus for a sub-$8 million domestic weekend at 98.8% implied probability. Pre-release tracking of $8–12 million was revised sharply lower after an Amazon Prime leak days before release, mixed reviews highlighting formulaic plotting, and competition from Insidious: Out of the Further in a crowded late-summer frame. The film’s projected $7.4–7.5 million finish beats Statham’s earlier 2026 release Shelter but reflects typical performance for his recent Lionsgate titles amid audience fragmentation and piracy concerns. An upset above $8 million would require unusually strong Saturday-Sunday holds or major estimate revisions, scenarios viewed as remote given current data.
This market will resolve according to how much "Mutiny" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (August 21 - 23) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$20,211End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Jason Statham’s mid-budget action thriller Mutiny opened to a soft $2.8 million Friday in roughly 2,700 theaters, locking in trader consensus for a sub-$8 million domestic weekend at 98.8% implied probability. Pre-release tracking of $8–12 million was revised sharply lower after an Amazon Prime leak days before release, mixed reviews highlighting formulaic plotting, and competition from Insidious: Out of the Further in a crowded late-summer frame. The film’s projected $7.4–7.5 million finish beats Statham’s earlier 2026 release Shelter but reflects typical performance for his recent Lionsgate titles amid audience fragmentation and piracy concerns. An upset above $8 million would require unusually strong Saturday-Sunday holds or major estimate revisions, scenarios viewed as remote given current data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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