Early trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race reflects a wide-open field, with Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger trading nearly even at roughly 28-29% implied probability each. Both actors carry long-overdue-win narratives, backed by high-profile studio releases and directors with strong Academy track records, though initial post-release buzz for Damon has cooled slightly while Cruise’s project builds speculative momentum. Supporting contenders like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling sit further back, their odds tied to festival trajectories and guild attention yet to emerge. The September-to-December awards season, including critical reviews and precursor nominations, will likely sharpen differentiation among these frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
Tom Cruise 29%
Matt Damon 29%
Andrew Scott 16%
John Malkovich 9.8%
$90,754 Vol.
$90,754 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Tom Cruise
29%
Matt Damon
29%
Andrew Scott
16%
John Malkovich
10%
Robert Pattinson
9%
Javier Bardem
3%
Sebastian Stan
3%
Ryan Gosling
2%
Timothée Chalamet
2%
Sam Rockwell
1%
Brad Pitt
1%
Jeremy Strong
1%
Pedro Pascal
1%
Josh O'Connor
<1%
Adam Driver
<1%
Jaafar Jackson
<1%
John Turturro
<1%
Robert Aramayo
<1%
Tom Cruise 29%
Matt Damon 29%
Andrew Scott 16%
John Malkovich 9.8%
$90,754 Vol.
$90,754 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Tom Cruise
$8,678 Vol.
29%
Matt Damon
$28,736 Vol.
29%
Andrew Scott
$8,455 Vol.
16%
John Malkovich
$4,165 Vol.
10%
Robert Pattinson
$2,767 Vol.
9%
Javier Bardem
$2,429 Vol.
3%
Sebastian Stan
$2,432 Vol.
3%
Ryan Gosling
$4,364 Vol.
2%
Timothée Chalamet
$2,881 Vol.
2%
Sam Rockwell
$2,404 Vol.
1%
Brad Pitt
$7,828 Vol.
1%
Jeremy Strong
$2,651 Vol.
1%
Pedro Pascal
$2,717 Vol.
1%
Josh O'Connor
$1,349 Vol.
<1%
Adam Driver
$2,179 Vol.
<1%
Jaafar Jackson
$2,729 Vol.
<1%
John Turturro
$1,389 Vol.
<1%
Robert Aramayo
$2,600 Vol.
<1%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race reflects a wide-open field, with Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger trading nearly even at roughly 28-29% implied probability each. Both actors carry long-overdue-win narratives, backed by high-profile studio releases and directors with strong Academy track records, though initial post-release buzz for Damon has cooled slightly while Cruise’s project builds speculative momentum. Supporting contenders like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling sit further back, their odds tied to festival trajectories and guild attention yet to emerge. The September-to-December awards season, including critical reviews and precursor nominations, will likely sharpen differentiation among these frontrunners.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Volume
$90,754End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Early trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race reflects a wide-open field, with Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger trading nearly even at roughly 28-29% implied probability each. Both actors carry long-overdue-win narratives, backed by high-profile studio releases and directors with strong Academy track records, though initial post-release buzz for Damon has cooled slightly while Cruise’s project builds speculative momentum. Supporting contenders like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling sit further back, their odds tied to festival trajectories and guild attention yet to emerge. The September-to-December awards season, including critical reviews and precursor nominations, will likely sharpen differentiation among these frontrunners.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Actor.
If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$90,754End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Early trader sentiment for the 2027 Best Actor race reflects a wide-open field, with Matt Damon in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey and Tom Cruise in Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger trading nearly even at roughly 28-29% implied probability each. Both actors carry long-overdue-win narratives, backed by high-profile studio releases and directors with strong Academy track records, though initial post-release buzz for Damon has cooled slightly while Cruise’s project builds speculative momentum. Supporting contenders like Andrew Scott, John Malkovich, and Ryan Gosling sit further back, their odds tied to festival trajectories and guild attention yet to emerge. The September-to-December awards season, including critical reviews and precursor nominations, will likely sharpen differentiation among these frontrunners.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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