With the 2027 Oscars still months away and the Best Documentary Feature field highly fragmented, trader sentiment reflects a wide-open race driven by early festival momentum rather than locked-in frontrunners. American Doctor leads implied probabilities after its Sundance premiere, Hot Docs audience award, and recent theatrical rollout, capitalizing on timely subject matter about U.S. physicians providing care in Gaza and strong critical visibility. Once Upon a Time in Harlem and Nuisance Bear sit close behind on the strength of Neon distribution, critical scores, and the latter’s expansion from an acclaimed short into a visually striking environmental story with Sundance Grand Jury recognition. One in a Million, Tutu, and Musk add further competition through distinct narratives and established filmmakers, while “Other” captures the long-tail potential of fall festival discoveries. Historical patterns show guild and precursor traction often shift these early odds dramatically once campaigns intensify.