Wild Horse Nine leads trader sentiment in the Best Original Screenplay market at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by Martin McDonagh’s proven awards pedigree, a stacked ensemble including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich, and strong early buzz for its 1973-set black comedy about CIA operatives. The film’s Venice premiere and November release position it as the first major 2026 contender to generate serious momentum. The rest of the field remains fragmented, with The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg), Fjord, and Digger each in the low double digits amid broader uncertainty—typical this far ahead when most original screenplays have yet to screen. Guild and critics’ awards in early 2027 will likely clarify frontrunners once reviews and precursor results emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner
Wild Horse Nine 34%
The Debut 12.7%
Obsession 13%
Fjord 12%
$22,023 Vol.
$22,023 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
34%
The Debut
13%
Obsession
13%
Fjord
12%
Digger
10%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
5%
The Invite
5%
The Black Ball
4%
The Drama
4%
A Place in Hell
4%
Josephine
3%
The Odyssey
3%
Club Kid
3%
Elsinore
2%
Fatherland
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
8%
Forgotten Island
2%
Wild Horse Nine 34%
The Debut 12.7%
Obsession 13%
Fjord 12%
$22,023 Vol.
$22,023 Vol.
Mar 14, 2027
Wild Horse Nine
$19,170 Vol.
34%
The Debut
$133 Vol.
13%
Obsession
$124 Vol.
13%
Fjord
$1,194 Vol.
12%
Digger
$694 Vol.
10%
Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma
$59 Vol.
5%
The Invite
$39 Vol.
5%
The Black Ball
$97 Vol.
4%
The Drama
$39 Vol.
4%
A Place in Hell
$59 Vol.
4%
Josephine
$59 Vol.
3%
The Odyssey
$59 Vol.
3%
Club Kid
$43 Vol.
3%
Elsinore
$39 Vol.
2%
Fatherland
$39 Vol.
2%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
$106 Vol.
8%
Forgotten Island
$67 Vol.
2%
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wild Horse Nine leads trader sentiment in the Best Original Screenplay market at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by Martin McDonagh’s proven awards pedigree, a stacked ensemble including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich, and strong early buzz for its 1973-set black comedy about CIA operatives. The film’s Venice premiere and November release position it as the first major 2026 contender to generate serious momentum. The rest of the field remains fragmented, with The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg), Fjord, and Digger each in the low double digits amid broader uncertainty—typical this far ahead when most original screenplays have yet to screen. Guild and critics’ awards in early 2027 will likely clarify frontrunners once reviews and precursor results emerge.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ET
Volume
$22,023End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Wild Horse Nine leads trader sentiment in the Best Original Screenplay market at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by Martin McDonagh’s proven awards pedigree, a stacked ensemble including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich, and strong early buzz for its 1973-set black comedy about CIA operatives. The film’s Venice premiere and November release position it as the first major 2026 contender to generate serious momentum. The rest of the field remains fragmented, with The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg), Fjord, and Digger each in the low double digits amid broader uncertainty—typical this far ahead when most original screenplays have yet to screen. Guild and critics’ awards in early 2027 will likely clarify frontrunners once reviews and precursor results emerge.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22,023End Date
Mar 14, 2027Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 4:40 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Wild Horse Nine leads trader sentiment in the Best Original Screenplay market at 33.5% implied probability, fueled by Martin McDonagh’s proven awards pedigree, a stacked ensemble including Sam Rockwell and John Malkovich, and strong early buzz for its 1973-set black comedy about CIA operatives. The film’s Venice premiere and November release position it as the first major 2026 contender to generate serious momentum. The rest of the field remains fragmented, with The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg), Fjord, and Digger each in the low double digits amid broader uncertainty—typical this far ahead when most original screenplays have yet to screen. Guild and critics’ awards in early 2027 will likely clarify frontrunners once reviews and precursor results emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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