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Politics·Mexico

Nayarit Governor Election Winner

icon for Nayarit Governor Election Winner
Politics·Mexico

Nayarit Governor Election Winner

Geraldine Ponce Méndez 38%

Héctor Javier Santana García 21%

Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez 16.5%

Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu 6.2%

Polymarket

$16,842 Vol.

Geraldine Ponce Méndez 38%

Héctor Javier Santana García 21%

Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez 16.5%

Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu 6.2%

Polymarket

$16,842 Vol.

icon for Geraldine Ponce Méndez

Geraldine Ponce Méndez

$7,147 Vol.

38%

icon for Héctor Javier Santana García

Héctor Javier Santana García

$3,410 Vol.

21%

icon for Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez

Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez

$1,458 Vol.

17%

icon for Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu

Hilaria Domínguez Arvizu

$261 Vol.

6%

icon for Ignacio Flores Medina

Ignacio Flores Medina

$220 Vol.

5%

icon for José Antonio Barajas López

José Antonio Barajas López

$273 Vol.

4%

icon for Julieta Mejía Ibáñez

Julieta Mejía Ibáñez

$301 Vol.

4%

icon for Ivideliza Reyes Hernández

Ivideliza Reyes Hernández

$219 Vol.

4%

icon for Héctor Santana García

Héctor Santana García

$224 Vol.

3%

icon for Paola Vargas Arciniega

Paola Vargas Arciniega

$219 Vol.

3%

icon for Citlalli Rubí Huerta

Citlalli Rubí Huerta

$238 Vol.

3%

icon for José Ramón Cambero Pérez

José Ramón Cambero Pérez

$239 Vol.

3%

icon for Gloria Núñez Sánchez

Gloria Núñez Sánchez

$198 Vol.

3%

icon for Ivonne Sabrina Díaz

Ivonne Sabrina Díaz

$299 Vol.

3%

icon for Luis Zamora Carrillo

Luis Zamora Carrillo

$266 Vol.

2%

icon for Manuel Cota Jiménez

Manuel Cota Jiménez

$238 Vol.

1%

icon for Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez

Jorge Armando Ortiz Rodríguez

$219 Vol.

1%

icon for María Elizabeth López Blanco

María Elizabeth López Blanco

$234 Vol.

1%

icon for Gustavo Ayón Aguirre

Gustavo Ayón Aguirre

$226 Vol.

1%

icon for Nadia Ramírez López

Nadia Ramírez López

$236 Vol.

1%

icon for Jesús Armando Vélez Macías

Jesús Armando Vélez Macías

$235 Vol.

1%

icon for Pavel Jarero Velázquez

Pavel Jarero Velázquez

$229 Vol.

<1%

icon for Enrique Díaz López

Enrique Díaz López

$251 Vol.

<1%

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Nayarit gubernatorial race for June 2027 remains in its early pre-campaign phase, with trader odds reflecting uncertainty over Morena’s internal nomination process and limited general-election polling. Geraldine Ponce Méndez leads at 37.5% amid mixed surveys that alternately place her or Héctor Santana García ahead within the party, while Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez and several lower-polling aspirants trail. Morena’s national leadership recently set rules requiring aspirants to request leaves from current offices and agree to a non-aggression pact, but no decisive selection has occurred. Party identification surveys continue to show the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance well ahead of Movimiento Ciudadano, PAN, and PRI, sustaining the frontrunners’ positioning while high undecided shares and the distant election date keep probabilities fragmented. Further internal polling, the nomination outcome, or early opposition consolidation could widen gaps.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$16,842
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.The Nayarit gubernatorial race for June 2027 remains in its early pre-campaign phase, with trader odds reflecting uncertainty over Morena’s internal nomination process and limited general-election polling. Geraldine Ponce Méndez leads at 37.5% amid mixed surveys that alternately place her or Héctor Santana García ahead within the party, while Jasmine Bugarín Rodríguez and several lower-polling aspirants trail. Morena’s national leadership recently set rules requiring aspirants to request leaves from current offices and agree to a non-aggression pact, but no decisive selection has occurred. Party identification surveys continue to show the Morena-PT-PVEM alliance well ahead of Movimiento Ciudadano, PAN, and PRI, sustaining the frontrunners’ positioning while high undecided shares and the distant election date keep probabilities fragmented. Further internal polling, the nomination outcome, or early opposition consolidation could widen gaps.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.
Volume
$16,842
End Date
Jun 6, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 6:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Nayarit on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nayarit gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Nayarit and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Nayarit and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Nayarit Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Geraldine Ponce Méndez" at 38%, followed by "Héctor Javier Santana García" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Nayarit Governor Election Winner" has generated $16.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 5, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Nayarit Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Nayarit Governor Election Winner" is "Geraldine Ponce Méndez" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Héctor Javier Santana García" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Nayarit Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.