Ülle Madise, Estonia’s long-serving Chancellor of Justice, holds overwhelming parliamentary backing from the Reform Party, Social Democrats, Estonia 200, and Isamaa ahead of the September 2, 2026, indirect presidential vote in the Riigikogu. Recent endorsements have pushed confirmed signatures well above the 68-vote threshold required for election in the first round, with rival figures such as Tiit Land effectively withdrawing and leaving her as the presumptive sole nominee. The 101-member parliament’s secret ballot favors broad coalition consensus over fragmented opposition from smaller parties like EKRE. Market pricing reflects this near-certainty, though an unexpected collapse in cross-party discipline or a shift to the electoral college could still alter the outcome before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedÜlle Madise 96.8%
Jonatan Vseviov 1.4%
Hannes Hanso <1%
Maive Rute <1%
$48,592 Vol.
$48,592 Vol.
Ülle Madise
97%
Jonatan Vseviov
1%
Hannes Hanso
1%
Maive Rute
1%
Mart Helme
<1%
Indrek Laul
<1%
Riho Ühtegi
<1%
Indrek Tarand
<1%
Riina Kionka
<1%
Ülle Madise 96.8%
Jonatan Vseviov 1.4%
Hannes Hanso <1%
Maive Rute <1%
$48,592 Vol.
$48,592 Vol.
Ülle Madise
97%
Jonatan Vseviov
1%
Hannes Hanso
1%
Maive Rute
1%
Mart Helme
<1%
Indrek Laul
<1%
Riho Ühtegi
<1%
Indrek Tarand
<1%
Riina Kionka
<1%
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Estonia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Estonia. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such President takes office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Estonia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of President of Estonia by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially sworn in as President of Estonia. Any interim or caretaker President will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such President takes office by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Estonia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Ülle Madise, Estonia’s long-serving Chancellor of Justice, holds overwhelming parliamentary backing from the Reform Party, Social Democrats, Estonia 200, and Isamaa ahead of the September 2, 2026, indirect presidential vote in the Riigikogu. Recent endorsements have pushed confirmed signatures well above the 68-vote threshold required for election in the first round, with rival figures such as Tiit Land effectively withdrawing and leaving her as the presumptive sole nominee. The 101-member parliament’s secret ballot favors broad coalition consensus over fragmented opposition from smaller parties like EKRE. Market pricing reflects this near-certainty, though an unexpected collapse in cross-party discipline or a shift to the electoral college could still alter the outcome before the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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