Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell and won the seat outright in 2024 by roughly five points, faces Republican nominee Rosemary Pino in the November 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 9th District. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook PVI, its urban and diverse electorate across Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties, and Pou’s unopposed Democratic primary. Pino prevailed in a close June 2026 GOP primary but starts with limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts. A national Republican wave, unexpected scandal, or unusually strong GOP turnout could still narrow the margin or produce an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-09 House Election Winner
NJ-09 House Election Winner
$22,101 Vol.
$22,101 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
9%
$22,101 Vol.
$22,101 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,307 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$10,794 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell and won the seat outright in 2024 by roughly five points, faces Republican nominee Rosemary Pino in the November 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 9th District. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook PVI, its urban and diverse electorate across Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties, and Pou’s unopposed Democratic primary. Pino prevailed in a close June 2026 GOP primary but starts with limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts. A national Republican wave, unexpected scandal, or unusually strong GOP turnout could still narrow the margin or produce an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$22,101End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell and won the seat outright in 2024 by roughly five points, faces Republican nominee Rosemary Pino in the November 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 9th District. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook PVI, its urban and diverse electorate across Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties, and Pou’s unopposed Democratic primary. Pino prevailed in a close June 2026 GOP primary but starts with limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts. A national Republican wave, unexpected scandal, or unusually strong GOP turnout could still narrow the margin or produce an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,101End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who succeeded longtime Rep. Bill Pascrell and won the seat outright in 2024 by roughly five points, faces Republican nominee Rosemary Pino in the November 2026 general election for New Jersey’s 9th District. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district’s D+2 Cook PVI, its urban and diverse electorate across Bergen, Passaic, and Hudson counties, and Pou’s unopposed Democratic primary. Pino prevailed in a close June 2026 GOP primary but starts with limited name recognition and fundraising. Trader consensus at over 90 percent for Democrats reflects these structural advantages and the absence of major recent shifts. A national Republican wave, unexpected scandal, or unusually strong GOP turnout could still narrow the margin or produce an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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