Yvette Clarke, the Democratic incumbent since 2007, secured her party's nomination in the June 23 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican nominee Joel Anabilah-Azumah advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the district solidly Democratic based on its Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results exceeding 70 percent for the party. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats reflects the district's urban New York City composition, Clarke's established fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure or recent polling signals of competitiveness. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a late scandal involving the incumbent or an extraordinary national political realignment altering turnout patterns in this low-competition race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-09 House Election Winner
NY-09 House Election Winner
$56,087 Vol.
$56,087 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$56,087 Vol.
$56,087 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$19,432 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$36,655 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yvette Clarke, the Democratic incumbent since 2007, secured her party's nomination in the June 23 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican nominee Joel Anabilah-Azumah advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the district solidly Democratic based on its Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results exceeding 70 percent for the party. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats reflects the district's urban New York City composition, Clarke's established fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure or recent polling signals of competitiveness. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a late scandal involving the incumbent or an extraordinary national political realignment altering turnout patterns in this low-competition race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Volume
$56,087End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Yvette Clarke, the Democratic incumbent since 2007, secured her party's nomination in the June 23 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican nominee Joel Anabilah-Azumah advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the district solidly Democratic based on its Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results exceeding 70 percent for the party. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats reflects the district's urban New York City composition, Clarke's established fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure or recent polling signals of competitiveness. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a late scandal involving the incumbent or an extraordinary national political realignment altering turnout patterns in this low-competition race.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$56,087End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Yvette Clarke, the Democratic incumbent since 2007, secured her party's nomination in the June 23 primary with roughly 69 percent of the vote against two challengers, while Republican nominee Joel Anabilah-Azumah advanced unopposed. Forecasters rate the district solidly Democratic based on its Partisan Voter Index and consistent past results exceeding 70 percent for the party. Trader consensus at 95 percent for Democrats reflects the district's urban New York City composition, Clarke's established fundraising and name recognition, and limited Republican infrastructure or recent polling signals of competitiveness. A shift would require an unforeseen event such as a late scandal involving the incumbent or an extraordinary national political realignment altering turnout patterns in this low-competition race.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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