The NY-13 district, covering Upper Manhattan and Northwest Bronx neighborhoods, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its consistent electoral history and recent forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination after defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican Jomo M. Williams ahead of the November 3 contest. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic outcome due to the district's partisan composition, past margins exceeding 80 percent for the party, and limited Republican infrastructure. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate-specific development, such as a late scandal or health event, or an unprecedented national wave altering turnout patterns, though historical base rates in comparable districts make these low-probability events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-13 House Election Winner
NY-13 House Election Winner
$39,667 Vol.
$39,667 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$39,667 Vol.
$39,667 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,176 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$12,491 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-13 district, covering Upper Manhattan and Northwest Bronx neighborhoods, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its consistent electoral history and recent forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination after defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican Jomo M. Williams ahead of the November 3 contest. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic outcome due to the district's partisan composition, past margins exceeding 80 percent for the party, and limited Republican infrastructure. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate-specific development, such as a late scandal or health event, or an unprecedented national wave altering turnout patterns, though historical base rates in comparable districts make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,667End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The NY-13 district, covering Upper Manhattan and Northwest Bronx neighborhoods, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its consistent electoral history and recent forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination after defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican Jomo M. Williams ahead of the November 3 contest. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic outcome due to the district's partisan composition, past margins exceeding 80 percent for the party, and limited Republican infrastructure. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate-specific development, such as a late scandal or health event, or an unprecedented national wave altering turnout patterns, though historical base rates in comparable districts make these low-probability events.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,667End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The NY-13 district, covering Upper Manhattan and Northwest Bronx neighborhoods, maintains a strong Democratic tilt reflected in its consistent electoral history and recent forecaster ratings of Solid or Safe Democratic. Darializa Avila Chevalier secured the Democratic nomination after defeating longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat in the June 2026 primary, positioning her as the clear general election frontrunner against Republican Jomo M. Williams ahead of the November 3 contest. Traders assign overwhelming probability to a Democratic outcome due to the district's partisan composition, past margins exceeding 80 percent for the party, and limited Republican infrastructure. Potential shifts could arise from an unforeseen candidate-specific development, such as a late scandal or health event, or an unprecedented national wave altering turnout patterns, though historical base rates in comparable districts make these low-probability events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions