Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in New York's 18th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters and his prior victories, including a 57% margin in 2024. The mid-Hudson Valley district's voter composition and Ryan's established fundraising advantage have reinforced trader consensus on Democratic retention at 91%. Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer advanced through a largely uncontested primary process, yet faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive shifts. Potential challenges include late national polling swings, unusually high turnout favoring the opposing party, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-18 House Election Winner
NY-18 House Election Winner
$40,295 Vol.
$40,295 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
91%
Republican Party
8%
$40,295 Vol.
$40,295 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$32,706 Vol.
91%
Republican Party
$7,589 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in New York's 18th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters and his prior victories, including a 57% margin in 2024. The mid-Hudson Valley district's voter composition and Ryan's established fundraising advantage have reinforced trader consensus on Democratic retention at 91%. Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer advanced through a largely uncontested primary process, yet faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive shifts. Potential challenges include late national polling swings, unusually high turnout favoring the opposing party, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$40,295End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in New York's 18th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters and his prior victories, including a 57% margin in 2024. The mid-Hudson Valley district's voter composition and Ryan's established fundraising advantage have reinforced trader consensus on Democratic retention at 91%. Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer advanced through a largely uncontested primary process, yet faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive shifts. Potential challenges include late national polling swings, unusually high turnout favoring the opposing party, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$40,295End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a commanding lead in New York's 18th congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026 general election, reflecting the seat's Solid Democratic rating from major forecasters and his prior victories, including a 57% margin in 2024. The mid-Hudson Valley district's voter composition and Ryan's established fundraising advantage have reinforced trader consensus on Democratic retention at 91%. Republican nominee Jacqueline Auringer advanced through a largely uncontested primary process, yet faces structural headwinds in a district without recent competitive shifts. Potential challenges include late national polling swings, unusually high turnout favoring the opposing party, or unforeseen candidate-specific developments that could narrow the gap before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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