Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 95 percent. The Capital Region seat has long favored Democrats, and Tonko faces no primary opposition while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio trails significantly in available assessments. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democrat, consistent with the district's established partisan baseline and limited competitive indicators. Factors supporting this outlook include stable local voting patterns and absence of recent polling shifts or external events elevating the challenger. Scenarios that could alter probabilities include major scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical midterm norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-20 House Election Winner
NY-20 House Election Winner
$33,322 Vol.
$33,322 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
1%
$33,322 Vol.
$33,322 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$16,177 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$17,145 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 95 percent. The Capital Region seat has long favored Democrats, and Tonko faces no primary opposition while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio trails significantly in available assessments. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democrat, consistent with the district's established partisan baseline and limited competitive indicators. Factors supporting this outlook include stable local voting patterns and absence of recent polling shifts or external events elevating the challenger. Scenarios that could alter probabilities include major scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical midterm norms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$33,322End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 95 percent. The Capital Region seat has long favored Democrats, and Tonko faces no primary opposition while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio trails significantly in available assessments. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democrat, consistent with the district's established partisan baseline and limited competitive indicators. Factors supporting this outlook include stable local voting patterns and absence of recent polling shifts or external events elevating the challenger. Scenarios that could alter probabilities include major scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical midterm norms.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,322End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing Democratic victory near 95 percent. The Capital Region seat has long favored Democrats, and Tonko faces no primary opposition while Republican nominee Ralph Ambrosio trails significantly in available assessments. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democrat, consistent with the district's established partisan baseline and limited competitive indicators. Factors supporting this outlook include stable local voting patterns and absence of recent polling shifts or external events elevating the challenger. Scenarios that could alter probabilities include major scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unprecedented national Republican surge exceeding historical midterm norms.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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