The Republican nominee holds a strong position in New York’s 21st congressional district due to its R+10 partisan lean and the retirement of longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik, creating an open-seat contest rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Anthony Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with backing from President Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien advanced on the other side. A mid-August J.L. Partners poll showed Constantino leading 53% to 40%, reversing an earlier SurveyUSA survey that had favored the Democrat. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at roughly 70%. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-21 House Election Winner
NY-21 House Election Winner
$60,565 Vol.
$60,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
29%
$60,565 Vol.
$60,565 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$30,849 Vol.
70%
Democratic Party
$29,716 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a strong position in New York’s 21st congressional district due to its R+10 partisan lean and the retirement of longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik, creating an open-seat contest rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Anthony Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with backing from President Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien advanced on the other side. A mid-August J.L. Partners poll showed Constantino leading 53% to 40%, reversing an earlier SurveyUSA survey that had favored the Democrat. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at roughly 70%. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$60,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a strong position in New York’s 21st congressional district due to its R+10 partisan lean and the retirement of longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik, creating an open-seat contest rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Anthony Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with backing from President Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien advanced on the other side. A mid-August J.L. Partners poll showed Constantino leading 53% to 40%, reversing an earlier SurveyUSA survey that had favored the Democrat. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at roughly 70%. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$60,565End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds a strong position in New York’s 21st congressional district due to its R+10 partisan lean and the retirement of longtime incumbent Elise Stefanik, creating an open-seat contest rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Anthony Constantino secured the GOP nomination in the June primary with backing from President Trump, while Democrat Blake Gendebien advanced on the other side. A mid-August J.L. Partners poll showed Constantino leading 53% to 40%, reversing an earlier SurveyUSA survey that had favored the Democrat. These factors, combined with the district’s consistent Republican voting patterns in recent cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at roughly 70%. The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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