Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 House race, reflected in the 92% Democratic consensus on prediction markets. The Central New York district carries a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic following uncontested June 2026 primaries, after multiple Republican candidates withdrew. Kailee Buller, the GOP nominee and former USDA official, faces structural headwinds from the district's partisan composition and Mannion's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. A major national Republican surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-22 House Election Winner
NY-22 House Election Winner
$21,986 Vol.
$21,986 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
8%
$21,986 Vol.
$21,986 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,827 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$11,158 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 House race, reflected in the 92% Democratic consensus on prediction markets. The Central New York district carries a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic following uncontested June 2026 primaries, after multiple Republican candidates withdrew. Kailee Buller, the GOP nominee and former USDA official, faces structural headwinds from the district's partisan composition and Mannion's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. A major national Republican surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$21,986End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 House race, reflected in the 92% Democratic consensus on prediction markets. The Central New York district carries a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic following uncontested June 2026 primaries, after multiple Republican candidates withdrew. Kailee Buller, the GOP nominee and former USDA official, faces structural headwinds from the district's partisan composition and Mannion's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. A major national Republican surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,986End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat John Mannion holds a commanding position in the NY-22 House race, reflected in the 92% Democratic consensus on prediction markets. The Central New York district carries a modest Democratic lean, and Mannion secured the seat in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic following uncontested June 2026 primaries, after multiple Republican candidates withdrew. Kailee Buller, the GOP nominee and former USDA official, faces structural headwinds from the district's partisan composition and Mannion's incumbency advantages in fundraising and name recognition. A major national Republican surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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