Incumbent Republican Mike Turner faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker and Libertarian Thomas McMasters in Ohio’s 10th district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+4 partisan lean, Trump’s 2024 margin, and Turner’s long tenure and unopposed primary underpin the strong Republican trader consensus. Recent internal and independent polls from July show Turner ahead by 5–9 points with double-digit undecideds, while forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican after modest adjustments. Knickerbocker’s primary victory and background have narrowed the gap relative to prior cycles but have not shifted the underlying structural advantages. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-10 House Election Winner
OH-10 House Election Winner
$38,734 Vol.
$38,734 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
83%
Democratic Party
17%
$38,734 Vol.
$38,734 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$18,414 Vol.
83%
Democratic Party
$20,320 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Turner faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker and Libertarian Thomas McMasters in Ohio’s 10th district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+4 partisan lean, Trump’s 2024 margin, and Turner’s long tenure and unopposed primary underpin the strong Republican trader consensus. Recent internal and independent polls from July show Turner ahead by 5–9 points with double-digit undecideds, while forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican after modest adjustments. Knickerbocker’s primary victory and background have narrowed the gap relative to prior cycles but have not shifted the underlying structural advantages. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,734End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Turner faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker and Libertarian Thomas McMasters in Ohio’s 10th district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+4 partisan lean, Trump’s 2024 margin, and Turner’s long tenure and unopposed primary underpin the strong Republican trader consensus. Recent internal and independent polls from July show Turner ahead by 5–9 points with double-digit undecideds, while forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican after modest adjustments. Knickerbocker’s primary victory and background have narrowed the gap relative to prior cycles but have not shifted the underlying structural advantages. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,734End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Turner faces Democrat Kristina Knickerbocker and Libertarian Thomas McMasters in Ohio’s 10th district on November 3, 2026. The district’s R+4 partisan lean, Trump’s 2024 margin, and Turner’s long tenure and unopposed primary underpin the strong Republican trader consensus. Recent internal and independent polls from July show Turner ahead by 5–9 points with double-digit undecideds, while forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican after modest adjustments. Knickerbocker’s primary victory and background have narrowed the gap relative to prior cycles but have not shifted the underlying structural advantages. No major late-breaking developments have altered the positioning ahead of the general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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