Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to run for Senate, leads the race for the October 4 first-round vote with a 69% market price. Multiple recent polls place him at 30-34% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 25-28% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 17-19%, supported by approval ratings near 60-68% and a wide coalition that includes PT, PSB, and other parties. Lucena, who resigned as João Pessoa mayor to run with PSD backing, trails at a 24% market price, while Efraim sits near 5%. Official conventions in early August, the selection of Lígia Feliciano as Lucas’s running mate, and recent candidate debates have reinforced the incumbent’s positioning ahead of the campaign period that began August 16.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLucas Ribeiro 69%
Cícero Lucena 25%
Efraim Filho 5%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo 1.3%
$52,125 Vol.
$52,125 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
69%
Cícero Lucena
25%
Efraim Filho
5%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
1%
Flávio Lúcio
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
<1%
Romero Rodrigues
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
<1%
Lucas Ribeiro 69%
Cícero Lucena 25%
Efraim Filho 5%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo 1.3%
$52,125 Vol.
$52,125 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lucas Ribeiro
$13,669 Vol.
69%
Cícero Lucena
$16,529 Vol.
25%
Efraim Filho
$13,181 Vol.
5%
Veneziano Vital do Rêgo
$2,360 Vol.
1%
Flávio Lúcio
$821 Vol.
1%
Nilvan Ferreira
$818 Vol.
<1%
Romero Rodrigues
$1,449 Vol.
<1%
Marcelo Queiroga
$3,299 Vol.
<1%
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to run for Senate, leads the race for the October 4 first-round vote with a 69% market price. Multiple recent polls place him at 30-34% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 25-28% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 17-19%, supported by approval ratings near 60-68% and a wide coalition that includes PT, PSB, and other parties. Lucena, who resigned as João Pessoa mayor to run with PSD backing, trails at a 24% market price, while Efraim sits near 5%. Official conventions in early August, the selection of Lígia Feliciano as Lucas’s running mate, and recent candidate debates have reinforced the incumbent’s positioning ahead of the campaign period that began August 16.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
Volume
$52,125End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to run for Senate, leads the race for the October 4 first-round vote with a 69% market price. Multiple recent polls place him at 30-34% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 25-28% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 17-19%, supported by approval ratings near 60-68% and a wide coalition that includes PT, PSB, and other parties. Lucena, who resigned as João Pessoa mayor to run with PSD backing, trails at a 24% market price, while Efraim sits near 5%. Official conventions in early August, the selection of Lígia Feliciano as Lucas’s running mate, and recent candidate debates have reinforced the incumbent’s positioning ahead of the campaign period that began August 16.
The Paraíba gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$52,125End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lucas Ribeiro (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 following João Azevêdo’s resignation to run for Senate, leads the race for the October 4 first-round vote with a 69% market price. Multiple recent polls place him at 30-34% in first-round scenarios, ahead of Cícero Lucena (MDB) at 25-28% and Efraim Filho (PL) at 17-19%, supported by approval ratings near 60-68% and a wide coalition that includes PT, PSB, and other parties. Lucena, who resigned as João Pessoa mayor to run with PSD backing, trails at a 24% market price, while Efraim sits near 5%. Official conventions in early August, the selection of Lígia Feliciano as Lucas’s running mate, and recent candidate debates have reinforced the incumbent’s positioning ahead of the campaign period that began August 16.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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