Chen Chen-chung, the KMT nominee and current township head, holds the leading trader-implied probability at 58.5% in the November 28, 2026, Penghu County magistrate race. This stems from the party's formal nomination and efforts to consolidate pan-blue support ahead of the local elections. The DPP's position is complicated by incumbent Chen Kuang-fu's February health incident and subsequent substitution of his wife, Wu Shu-chin, as the standard-bearer, which has contributed to her lower 27.5% pricing. Multiple independents, including Yeh Chu-lin and others, continue to fragment the non-DPP vote in a county where outcomes have historically alternated between parties, sustaining a competitive field with limited recent polling separation. Scheduled party conventions and any coordinated candidate withdrawals before election day represent the primary near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.