Elaine Pelino holds a commanding lead in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary due to consistent polling advantages and her positioning as a grassroots outsider emphasizing spending cuts, Second Amendment rights, and conservative contrasts with the likely Democratic nominee. Recent surveys, including Embold Research from early August and University of New Hampshire polling from June, show her ahead of Aaron Guckian by roughly 20 points among likely primary voters, with large shares undecided. Multiple other candidates withdrew or failed to qualify, narrowing the field ahead of the September 9 primary and early voting that began August 20. Guckian secured the state party endorsement in June and maintains greater campaign resources from prior statewide experience, but these have not translated into polling gains. Trader consensus reflects the difficulty of overcoming Pelino’s edge in a low-turnout primary, though late shifts among undecided voters or turnout surprises tied to the party nod could still alter the outcome.