The open seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by incumbent Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Jenny Costa Honeycutt against Democratic nominee Nancy Lacore in the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 69.5% Republican implied probability, reflecting the seat’s coastal suburban and rural composition that has favored GOP candidates by double-digit margins in most cycles. Primary and runoff results from June 2026 narrowed fields without producing notable cross-party momentum shifts, while Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general-election polling and absence of major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or external spending surges have kept trader consensus aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage, though the 30% Democratic price leaves room for turnout variations or unexpected campaign dynamics before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSC-01 House Election Winner
SC-01 House Election Winner
$54,040 Vol.
$54,040 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
70%
Democratic Party
30%
$54,040 Vol.
$54,040 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,006 Vol.
70%
Democratic Party
$41,034 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by incumbent Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Jenny Costa Honeycutt against Democratic nominee Nancy Lacore in the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 69.5% Republican implied probability, reflecting the seat’s coastal suburban and rural composition that has favored GOP candidates by double-digit margins in most cycles. Primary and runoff results from June 2026 narrowed fields without producing notable cross-party momentum shifts, while Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general-election polling and absence of major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or external spending surges have kept trader consensus aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage, though the 30% Democratic price leaves room for turnout variations or unexpected campaign dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$54,040End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by incumbent Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Jenny Costa Honeycutt against Democratic nominee Nancy Lacore in the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 69.5% Republican implied probability, reflecting the seat’s coastal suburban and rural composition that has favored GOP candidates by double-digit margins in most cycles. Primary and runoff results from June 2026 narrowed fields without producing notable cross-party momentum shifts, while Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general-election polling and absence of major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or external spending surges have kept trader consensus aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage, though the 30% Democratic price leaves room for turnout variations or unexpected campaign dynamics before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$54,040End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, vacated by incumbent Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, features Republican nominee Jenny Costa Honeycutt against Democratic nominee Nancy Lacore in the November 3, 2026 general election. The district’s R+6 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the 69.5% Republican implied probability, reflecting the seat’s coastal suburban and rural composition that has favored GOP candidates by double-digit margins in most cycles. Primary and runoff results from June 2026 narrowed fields without producing notable cross-party momentum shifts, while Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the contest as Likely or Solid Republican. Limited general-election polling and absence of major late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawals or external spending surges have kept trader consensus aligned with the district’s structural Republican advantage, though the 30% Democratic price leaves room for turnout variations or unexpected campaign dynamics before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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