Morena maintains a clear edge in Sinaloa voter intention surveys for the 2027 gubernatorial race, with roughly 35-40 percent support against single-digit or low-teens figures for PRI, PAN, and Movimiento Ciudadano. Imelda Castro Castro leads internal Morena preference polling at around 30 percent, ahead of Gerardo Vargas Landeros and Teresa Guerra Ochoa, positioning her as the consensus front-runner for the party nomination that has historically translated into statewide victory. The abrupt return and swift re-departure of incumbent Rubén Rocha Moya amid a U.S. indictment tied to cartel ties, coupled with public distancing by President Claudia Sheinbaum and Castro herself, has intensified internal party dynamics and elevated candidates seen as aligned with the national leadership. Opposition figures such as Mario Zamora Gastélum and Eduardo Ortiz Hernández top their respective party lists but trail significantly in head-to-head matchups, leaving the overall outcome dependent on Morena’s still-open selection process and the absence of major late shifts in security perceptions or turnout patterns.