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Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

icon for Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee
Politics·France

Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee

Raphael Glucksmann 59%

Boris Vallaud 12%

Olivier Faure 9%

Segolene Royal 6.8%

Polymarket

$29,201 Vol.

Raphael Glucksmann 59%

Boris Vallaud 12%

Olivier Faure 9%

Segolene Royal 6.8%

Polymarket

$29,201 Vol.

icon for Raphael Glucksmann

Raphael Glucksmann

$11,108 Vol.

59%

icon for Boris Vallaud

Boris Vallaud

$7,662 Vol.

12%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$1,128 Vol.

9%

icon for Segolene Royal

Segolene Royal

$1,341 Vol.

7%

icon for Francois Hollande

Francois Hollande

$3,949 Vol.

2%

icon for Philippe Brun

Philippe Brun

$1,142 Vol.

1%

icon for Karim Bouamrane

Karim Bouamrane

$902 Vol.

1%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$627 Vol.

<1%

icon for Bernard Cazeneuve

Bernard Cazeneuve

$688 Vol.

<1%

icon for Carole Delga

Carole Delga

$654 Vol.

<1%

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.Raphaël Glucksmann leads trader consensus at 60.5% for the Socialist Party’s 2027 presidential nomination due to the party’s July vote establishing a closed primary limited to PS members and allied social-democratic groups, which narrows the electorate in his favor. Recent endorsements, including from veteran figure Daniel Cohn-Bendit, and Glucksmann’s positioning around European sovereignty and reformist center-left themes have reinforced his edge over PS first secretary Olivier Faure and others. Lower probabilities for Boris Vallaud, Ségolène Royal, François Hollande, and additional declared or potential contenders reflect the primary structure and Glucksmann’s external momentum ahead of the October vote. Trader pricing aligns with these procedural and alliance dynamics while remaining open to shifts from formal announcements or coalition negotiations.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,201
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.Raphaël Glucksmann leads trader consensus at 60.5% for the Socialist Party’s 2027 presidential nomination due to the party’s July vote establishing a closed primary limited to PS members and allied social-democratic groups, which narrows the electorate in his favor. Recent endorsements, including from veteran figure Daniel Cohn-Bendit, and Glucksmann’s positioning around European sovereignty and reformist center-left themes have reinforced his edge over PS first secretary Olivier Faure and others. Lower probabilities for Boris Vallaud, Ségolène Royal, François Hollande, and additional declared or potential contenders reflect the primary structure and Glucksmann’s external momentum ahead of the October vote. Trader pricing aligns with these procedural and alliance dynamics while remaining open to shifts from formal announcements or coalition negotiations.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections.

If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.

Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,201
End Date
Oct 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 13, 2026, 7:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is expected to hold a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections in October 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) to contest the 2027 French presidential elections. If no nominee is announced by April 17, 2027, 11:59PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/. Any replacement of the nominee before the 2027 French presidential elections will not change the resolution of the market.

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Will Raphaël Glucksmann announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Raphael Glucksmann" at 59%, followed by "Boris Vallaud" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 59¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" has generated $29.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" is "Raphael Glucksmann" at 59%, meaning the market assigns a 59% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Boris Vallaud" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Socialist Party of France Presidential Nominee" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.