**Strong theatrical legs and sustained audience interest have positioned "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a domestic total likely to finish between $850 million and $920 million by August 31, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the sub-$900 million and $900-920 million brackets.** The Tom Holland-Zendaya film opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has maintained impressive holds, crossing $800 million domestically in roughly three weeks while adding $39 million in its fourth weekend for a running cume near $855 million. With about eight days remaining, the current per-theater averages and modest competition suggest it will add another $50-70 million before month-end, aligning with trader consensus that a sub-$900 million finish is the most probable outcome while leaving room for a modest push into the low $900 millions if word-of-mouth holds. Higher brackets above $940 million carry negligible implied probability given the natural late-summer slowdown for even the biggest blockbusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)
<900m 68%
900 - 920m 32%
1080m+ <1%
920 - 940m <1%
$392,321 Vol.
$392,321 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
68%
900 - 920m
32%
920 - 940m
<1%
940 - 960m
<1%
960 - 980m
<1%
980 - 1000m
<1%
1000 - 1020m
<1%
1020 - 1040m
<1%
1040 - 1060m
<1%
1060 - 1080m
<1%
1080m+
<1%
<900m 68%
900 - 920m 32%
1080m+ <1%
920 - 940m <1%
$392,321 Vol.
$392,321 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<900m
$90,709 Vol.
68%
900 - 920m
$73,096 Vol.
32%
920 - 940m
$36,427 Vol.
<1%
940 - 960m
$23,752 Vol.
<1%
960 - 980m
$16,278 Vol.
<1%
980 - 1000m
$8,224 Vol.
<1%
1000 - 1020m
$2,789 Vol.
<1%
1020 - 1040m
$764 Vol.
<1%
1040 - 1060m
$837 Vol.
<1%
1060 - 1080m
$873 Vol.
<1%
1080m+
$138,573 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong theatrical legs and sustained audience interest have positioned "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a domestic total likely to finish between $850 million and $920 million by August 31, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the sub-$900 million and $900-920 million brackets.**
The Tom Holland-Zendaya film opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has maintained impressive holds, crossing $800 million domestically in roughly three weeks while adding $39 million in its fourth weekend for a running cume near $855 million. With about eight days remaining, the current per-theater averages and modest competition suggest it will add another $50-70 million before month-end, aligning with trader consensus that a sub-$900 million finish is the most probable outcome while leaving room for a modest push into the low $900 millions if word-of-mouth holds. Higher brackets above $940 million carry negligible implied probability given the natural late-summer slowdown for even the biggest blockbusters.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Volume
$392,321End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Strong theatrical legs and sustained audience interest have positioned "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a domestic total likely to finish between $850 million and $920 million by August 31, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the sub-$900 million and $900-920 million brackets.**
The Tom Holland-Zendaya film opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has maintained impressive holds, crossing $800 million domestically in roughly three weeks while adding $39 million in its fourth weekend for a running cume near $855 million. With about eight days remaining, the current per-theater averages and modest competition suggest it will add another $50-70 million before month-end, aligning with trader consensus that a sub-$900 million finish is the most probable outcome while leaving room for a modest push into the low $900 millions if word-of-mouth holds. Higher brackets above $940 million carry negligible implied probability given the natural late-summer slowdown for even the biggest blockbusters.
This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$392,321End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 12:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Strong theatrical legs and sustained audience interest have positioned "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" for a domestic total likely to finish between $850 million and $920 million by August 31, driving the market's heavy weighting toward the sub-$900 million and $900-920 million brackets.** The Tom Holland-Zendaya film opened to a record $360 million domestically on July 31 and has maintained impressive holds, crossing $800 million domestically in roughly three weeks while adding $39 million in its fourth weekend for a running cume near $855 million. With about eight days remaining, the current per-theater averages and modest competition suggest it will add another $50-70 million before month-end, aligning with trader consensus that a sub-$900 million finish is the most probable outcome while leaving room for a modest push into the low $900 millions if word-of-mouth holds. Higher brackets above $940 million carry negligible implied probability given the natural late-summer slowdown for even the biggest blockbusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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