Tennessee's 6th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following May 2026 redistricting that expanded GOP advantages across the state. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. John Rose, drew a competitive Republican primary won by state Rep. Johnny Garrett over former Rep. Van Hilleary. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary field. Forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and prior election margins favoring Republicans by double digits. Traders reflect this structural edge and Garrett's primary performance through the wide spread in party outcomes. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national shift against Republicans could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-06 House Election Winner
TN-06 House Election Winner
$12,406 Vol.
$12,406 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$12,406 Vol.
$12,406 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$8,446 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$3,960 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following May 2026 redistricting that expanded GOP advantages across the state. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. John Rose, drew a competitive Republican primary won by state Rep. Johnny Garrett over former Rep. Van Hilleary. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary field. Forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and prior election margins favoring Republicans by double digits. Traders reflect this structural edge and Garrett's primary performance through the wide spread in party outcomes. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national shift against Republicans could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$12,406End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 6th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following May 2026 redistricting that expanded GOP advantages across the state. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. John Rose, drew a competitive Republican primary won by state Rep. Johnny Garrett over former Rep. Van Hilleary. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary field. Forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and prior election margins favoring Republicans by double digits. Traders reflect this structural edge and Garrett's primary performance through the wide spread in party outcomes. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national shift against Republicans could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,406End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 6th congressional district remains a strongly Republican-leaning seat following May 2026 redistricting that expanded GOP advantages across the state. The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. John Rose, drew a competitive Republican primary won by state Rep. Johnny Garrett over former Rep. Van Hilleary. Democrat Mike Croley advanced from a fragmented primary field. Forecasters rate the November 3 general election Solid or Safe Republican, consistent with the district's partisan voter index and prior election margins favoring Republicans by double digits. Traders reflect this structural edge and Garrett's primary performance through the wide spread in party outcomes. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue, or sharp national shift against Republicans could narrow the gap, though no such factors have emerged.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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