Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher holds an 86.5% implied probability in the TN-05 general election because recent redistricting created a sprawling, rural-heavy district spanning parts of Memphis, Williamson County, and northwestern Tennessee counties that delivers a strong Republican baseline. Analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Hatcher’s August 6 primary victory over incumbent Andy Ogles, despite the latter’s Trump endorsement, consolidated GOP support behind a candidate with broad party backing including from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder won his primary but faces structural headwinds in the reconfigured map that removed much of Nashville and diluted urban Democratic concentrations. Independent candidates remain on the ballot but show negligible impact in current positioning. The November 3 contest is expected to follow the district’s partisan composition absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-05 House Election Winner
TN-05 House Election Winner
$52,953 Vol.
$52,953 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
88%
Democratic Party
13%
$52,953 Vol.
$52,953 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$26,616 Vol.
88%
Democratic Party
$26,338 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher holds an 86.5% implied probability in the TN-05 general election because recent redistricting created a sprawling, rural-heavy district spanning parts of Memphis, Williamson County, and northwestern Tennessee counties that delivers a strong Republican baseline. Analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Hatcher’s August 6 primary victory over incumbent Andy Ogles, despite the latter’s Trump endorsement, consolidated GOP support behind a candidate with broad party backing including from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder won his primary but faces structural headwinds in the reconfigured map that removed much of Nashville and diluted urban Democratic concentrations. Independent candidates remain on the ballot but show negligible impact in current positioning. The November 3 contest is expected to follow the district’s partisan composition absent major late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$52,953End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher holds an 86.5% implied probability in the TN-05 general election because recent redistricting created a sprawling, rural-heavy district spanning parts of Memphis, Williamson County, and northwestern Tennessee counties that delivers a strong Republican baseline. Analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Hatcher’s August 6 primary victory over incumbent Andy Ogles, despite the latter’s Trump endorsement, consolidated GOP support behind a candidate with broad party backing including from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder won his primary but faces structural headwinds in the reconfigured map that removed much of Nashville and diluted urban Democratic concentrations. Independent candidates remain on the ballot but show negligible impact in current positioning. The November 3 contest is expected to follow the district’s partisan composition absent major late developments.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$52,953End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican nominee Charlie Hatcher holds an 86.5% implied probability in the TN-05 general election because recent redistricting created a sprawling, rural-heavy district spanning parts of Memphis, Williamson County, and northwestern Tennessee counties that delivers a strong Republican baseline. Analysts rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Hatcher’s August 6 primary victory over incumbent Andy Ogles, despite the latter’s Trump endorsement, consolidated GOP support behind a candidate with broad party backing including from Governor Bill Lee. Democratic nominee Chaz Molder won his primary but faces structural headwinds in the reconfigured map that removed much of Nashville and diluted urban Democratic concentrations. Independent candidates remain on the ballot but show negligible impact in current positioning. The November 3 contest is expected to follow the district’s partisan composition absent major late developments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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