Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following mid-decade redistricting, with analysts assigning it Solid or Safe Republican ratings based on a simulated Trump margin near 24 points and a Partisan Voter Index around R+11. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais secured the Republican nomination in the August 6 primary with 66 percent of the vote, while Democrat Victoria Broderick prevailed in her primary; both nominees now head to the November 3 general. Forecasters cite the district's consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling as key drivers of trader consensus near 93 percent Republican. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic wave, or unexpectedly high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers keep such shifts low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTN-04 House Election Winner
TN-04 House Election Winner
$38,077 Vol.
$38,077 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$38,077 Vol.
$38,077 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$19,445 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$18,631 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following mid-decade redistricting, with analysts assigning it Solid or Safe Republican ratings based on a simulated Trump margin near 24 points and a Partisan Voter Index around R+11. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais secured the Republican nomination in the August 6 primary with 66 percent of the vote, while Democrat Victoria Broderick prevailed in her primary; both nominees now head to the November 3 general. Forecasters cite the district's consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling as key drivers of trader consensus near 93 percent Republican. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic wave, or unexpectedly high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers keep such shifts low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,077End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following mid-decade redistricting, with analysts assigning it Solid or Safe Republican ratings based on a simulated Trump margin near 24 points and a Partisan Voter Index around R+11. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais secured the Republican nomination in the August 6 primary with 66 percent of the vote, while Democrat Victoria Broderick prevailed in her primary; both nominees now head to the November 3 general. Forecasters cite the district's consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling as key drivers of trader consensus near 93 percent Republican. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic wave, or unexpectedly high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers keep such shifts low-probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,077End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following mid-decade redistricting, with analysts assigning it Solid or Safe Republican ratings based on a simulated Trump margin near 24 points and a Partisan Voter Index around R+11. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais secured the Republican nomination in the August 6 primary with 66 percent of the vote, while Democrat Victoria Broderick prevailed in her primary; both nominees now head to the November 3 general. Forecasters cite the district's consistent GOP performance in recent cycles, limited Democratic infrastructure, and absence of competitive polling as key drivers of trader consensus near 93 percent Republican. A late-breaking scandal, significant national Democratic wave, or unexpectedly high opposition turnout could narrow the margin, though structural barriers keep such shifts low-probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions