Incumbent Republican Keith Self secured the nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt in the November general election for Texas's 3rd congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered roughly 60 percent support for Republican presidential and Senate candidates in 2024, producing consistent double-digit GOP margins that align with current trader pricing near 92 percent for the Republican outcome. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a shift. A major national Democratic wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established structural advantage to alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-03 House Election Winner
TX-03 House Election Winner
$32,312 Vol.
$32,312 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
9%
$32,312 Vol.
$32,312 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$22,715 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$9,597 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Keith Self secured the nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt in the November general election for Texas's 3rd congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered roughly 60 percent support for Republican presidential and Senate candidates in 2024, producing consistent double-digit GOP margins that align with current trader pricing near 92 percent for the Republican outcome. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a shift. A major national Democratic wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established structural advantage to alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,312End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Keith Self secured the nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt in the November general election for Texas's 3rd congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered roughly 60 percent support for Republican presidential and Senate candidates in 2024, producing consistent double-digit GOP margins that align with current trader pricing near 92 percent for the Republican outcome. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a shift. A major national Democratic wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established structural advantage to alter the result.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,312End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Keith Self secured the nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary and faces Democratic nominee Evan Hunt in the November general election for Texas's 3rd congressional district. The seat carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered roughly 60 percent support for Republican presidential and Senate candidates in 2024, producing consistent double-digit GOP margins that align with current trader pricing near 92 percent for the Republican outcome. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals that would indicate a shift. A major national Democratic wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such developments would need to overcome the district's established structural advantage to alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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