The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Texas's 30th congressional district, reflected in its D+25 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past margins exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Democrat Frederick Haynes secured the nomination decisively in the March 2026 primary. This outcome, combined with limited Republican opposition from Everett Jackson and minimal recent developments shifting voter fundamentals, sustains the implied probability near 95 percent. A national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high turnout among non-Democratic voters could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-30 House Election Winner
TX-30 House Election Winner
$47,066 Vol.
$47,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$47,066 Vol.
$47,066 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,579 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$41,488 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Texas's 30th congressional district, reflected in its D+25 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past margins exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Democrat Frederick Haynes secured the nomination decisively in the March 2026 primary. This outcome, combined with limited Republican opposition from Everett Jackson and minimal recent developments shifting voter fundamentals, sustains the implied probability near 95 percent. A national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high turnout among non-Democratic voters could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$47,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Texas's 30th congressional district, reflected in its D+25 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past margins exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Democrat Frederick Haynes secured the nomination decisively in the March 2026 primary. This outcome, combined with limited Republican opposition from Everett Jackson and minimal recent developments shifting voter fundamentals, sustains the implied probability near 95 percent. A national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high turnout among non-Democratic voters could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,066End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic partisan composition of Texas's 30th congressional district, reflected in its D+25 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent past margins exceeding 80 percent for Democratic candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue a U.S. Senate bid created an open seat, yet Democrat Frederick Haynes secured the nomination decisively in the March 2026 primary. This outcome, combined with limited Republican opposition from Everett Jackson and minimal recent developments shifting voter fundamentals, sustains the implied probability near 95 percent. A national Republican surge, candidate-specific scandal, or unusually high turnout among non-Democratic voters could narrow the gap, though structural factors make such shifts improbable before the November general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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