Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature in August 2025 shifted Texas's 32nd Congressional District to a Republican-leaning profile with a Partisan Voter Index of R+8, converting a previously Democratic seat into an open contest. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough secured the nomination after a crowded March primary and the withdrawal of his runoff opponent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios emerged from a lower-turnout primary but faces structural headwinds in the redrawn suburban Dallas and eastern counties. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the map's partisan tilt and the absence of major late developments capable of altering the balance before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedTX-32 House Election Winner
TX-32 House Election Winner
$29,537 Vol.
$29,537 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
77%
Democratic Party
22%
$29,537 Vol.
$29,537 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$27,281 Vol.
77%
Democratic Party
$2,256 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature in August 2025 shifted Texas's 32nd Congressional District to a Republican-leaning profile with a Partisan Voter Index of R+8, converting a previously Democratic seat into an open contest. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough secured the nomination after a crowded March primary and the withdrawal of his runoff opponent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios emerged from a lower-turnout primary but faces structural headwinds in the redrawn suburban Dallas and eastern counties. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the map's partisan tilt and the absence of major late developments capable of altering the balance before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$29,537End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature in August 2025 shifted Texas's 32nd Congressional District to a Republican-leaning profile with a Partisan Voter Index of R+8, converting a previously Democratic seat into an open contest. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough secured the nomination after a crowded March primary and the withdrawal of his runoff opponent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios emerged from a lower-turnout primary but faces structural headwinds in the redrawn suburban Dallas and eastern counties. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the map's partisan tilt and the absence of major late developments capable of altering the balance before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-32 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$29,537End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting approved by the Texas Legislature in August 2025 shifted Texas's 32nd Congressional District to a Republican-leaning profile with a Partisan Voter Index of R+8, converting a previously Democratic seat into an open contest. Republican nominee Jace Yarbrough secured the nomination after a crowded March primary and the withdrawal of his runoff opponent, bolstered by an endorsement from President Trump. Democratic nominee Dan Barrios emerged from a lower-turnout primary but faces structural headwinds in the redrawn suburban Dallas and eastern counties. Forecasters across outlets rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader consensus that reflects the map's partisan tilt and the absence of major late developments capable of altering the balance before November.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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