Don’t Say Good Luck holds a commanding 96.8% market-implied probability because its August 14 Netflix premiere generated immediate chart dominance, positive critical reception, and strong family-driven buzz around Sunny Sandler’s lead performance in the coming-of-age musical drama produced by Happy Madison. Recent viewership data shows it leading the platform’s top movies list for the tracking week, outpacing holdovers and newer arrivals through favorable word-of-mouth and broad teen-adult appeal. Traders see limited room for reversal given the film’s momentum and the short remaining window before the week closes. An upset would require an unexpected late surge from a competitor such as The Last House or a sharp drop in engagement metrics that shifts the final ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
Don’t Say Good Luck 97.0%
The Last House <1%
To Catch a Cheater <1%
Extinction <1%
$21,126 Vol.
$21,126 Vol.
Don’t Say Good Luck
97%
The Last House
1%
To Catch a Cheater
<1%
Extinction
<1%
Arthur the King
<1%
Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing
<1%
Don’t Say Good Luck 97.0%
The Last House <1%
To Catch a Cheater <1%
Extinction <1%
$21,126 Vol.
$21,126 Vol.
Don’t Say Good Luck
97%
The Last House
1%
To Catch a Cheater
<1%
Extinction
<1%
Arthur the King
<1%
Freefall: A Reckoning for Boeing
<1%
This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 9:20 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://top10.netflix.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 US Netflix movie. If multiple movies tie for #1, this market will resolve according to the movie whose listed title comes first alphabetically.
The ranking is based on total views in the United States, as reported by Netflix for US Top 10 Movies.
If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by August 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolution Source
https://top10.netflix.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Don’t Say Good Luck holds a commanding 96.8% market-implied probability because its August 14 Netflix premiere generated immediate chart dominance, positive critical reception, and strong family-driven buzz around Sunny Sandler’s lead performance in the coming-of-age musical drama produced by Happy Madison. Recent viewership data shows it leading the platform’s top movies list for the tracking week, outpacing holdovers and newer arrivals through favorable word-of-mouth and broad teen-adult appeal. Traders see limited room for reversal given the film’s momentum and the short remaining window before the week closes. An upset would require an unexpected late surge from a competitor such as The Last House or a sharp drop in engagement metrics that shifts the final ranking.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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