Anthropic's latest frontier models, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, drive the overwhelming market consensus through consistent leadership across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding on SWE-bench, and agentic performance as of August 23, 2026. These releases from July established clear advantages in capability and efficiency over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and competitors like Google's Gemini variants or Meta's offerings. With the resolution date only days away and no major launches reported in the interim, traders see limited room for reversal. A surprise model drop from another lab meeting or exceeding these benchmarks remains the main scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.4%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$2,410,539 Vol.
$2,410,539 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
1%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.4%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$2,410,539 Vol.
$2,410,539 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
$470,126 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$201,866 Vol.
1%
$206,100 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$185,268 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$161,572 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$119,740 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$35,032 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$233,499 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$48,963 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$215,476 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$292,202 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$146,168 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$12,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$5,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's latest frontier models, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, drive the overwhelming market consensus through consistent leadership across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding on SWE-bench, and agentic performance as of August 23, 2026. These releases from July established clear advantages in capability and efficiency over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and competitors like Google's Gemini variants or Meta's offerings. With the resolution date only days away and no major launches reported in the interim, traders see limited room for reversal. A surprise model drop from another lab meeting or exceeding these benchmarks remains the main scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,410,539End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's latest frontier models, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, drive the overwhelming market consensus through consistent leadership across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding on SWE-bench, and agentic performance as of August 23, 2026. These releases from July established clear advantages in capability and efficiency over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and competitors like Google's Gemini variants or Meta's offerings. With the resolution date only days away and no major launches reported in the interim, traders see limited room for reversal. A surprise model drop from another lab meeting or exceeding these benchmarks remains the main scenario that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,410,539End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's latest frontier models, including Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5, drive the overwhelming market consensus through consistent leadership across independent benchmarks for reasoning, coding on SWE-bench, and agentic performance as of August 23, 2026. These releases from July established clear advantages in capability and efficiency over OpenAI's GPT-5.6 series and competitors like Google's Gemini variants or Meta's offerings. With the resolution date only days away and no major launches reported in the interim, traders see limited room for reversal. A surprise model drop from another lab meeting or exceeding these benchmarks remains the main scenario that could alter the outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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