Anthropic's recent frontier releases, led by Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro, Terminal-Bench, and Frontier-Bench, plus demonstrated gains in protein design and computer-use tasks. These models outperform or closely match competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 series on practical workflows while benefiting from iterative improvements in context handling and tool use. With the September resolution window now under six weeks away, the strong trader consensus reflects limited time for rivals to close the gap via new launches. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release that shifts third-party evaluations or a major benchmark update favoring another lab's capabilities before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.1%
Google 2.9%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
$442,952 Vol.
$442,952 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
91%
OpenAI
5%
3%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Anthropic 91%
OpenAI 5.1%
Google 2.9%
SpaceXAI 1.1%
$442,952 Vol.
$442,952 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$57,478 Vol.
91%
OpenAI
$24,681 Vol.
5%
$23,344 Vol.
3%
SpaceXAI
$24,995 Vol.
1%
Meta
$17,403 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$21,752 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$25,152 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$22,373 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$23,516 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$16,727 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$24,181 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$15,736 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$16,753 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,033 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$16,539 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,148 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$14,320 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$14,486 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$18,597 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$12,889 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$21,501 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent frontier releases, led by Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro, Terminal-Bench, and Frontier-Bench, plus demonstrated gains in protein design and computer-use tasks. These models outperform or closely match competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 series on practical workflows while benefiting from iterative improvements in context handling and tool use. With the September resolution window now under six weeks away, the strong trader consensus reflects limited time for rivals to close the gap via new launches. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release that shifts third-party evaluations or a major benchmark update favoring another lab's capabilities before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ET
Volume
$442,952End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent frontier releases, led by Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro, Terminal-Bench, and Frontier-Bench, plus demonstrated gains in protein design and computer-use tasks. These models outperform or closely match competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 series on practical workflows while benefiting from iterative improvements in context handling and tool use. With the September resolution window now under six weeks away, the strong trader consensus reflects limited time for rivals to close the gap via new launches. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release that shifts third-party evaluations or a major benchmark update favoring another lab's capabilities before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$442,952End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:28 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent frontier releases, led by Claude Mythos 5 and Fable 5, have driven the 90.5% market-implied odds through consistent leadership on agentic coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Pro, Terminal-Bench, and Frontier-Bench, plus demonstrated gains in protein design and computer-use tasks. These models outperform or closely match competitors like OpenAI's GPT-5 series on practical workflows while benefiting from iterative improvements in context handling and tool use. With the September resolution window now under six weeks away, the strong trader consensus reflects limited time for rivals to close the gap via new launches. Realistic challenges include an unexpected competitive release that shifts third-party evaluations or a major benchmark update favoring another lab's capabilities before month-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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