Google's Veo 3.1 leads text-to-video AI with state-of-the-art prompt adherence, realistic physics, 1080p/4K output, and native synchronized audio including dialogue, a capability few competitors match at scale. Recent 2026 updates enhanced image-to-video consistency, vertical format support for platforms like YouTube Shorts, and integration across Gemini, Vertex AI, and Google Vids, reinforcing enterprise and creator adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this positioning, as traders weigh Veo's benchmarks and broad availability against rivals like Kling 3.0 or Runway Gen-4.5, which trail in audio fidelity or consistent realism. With end-of-September resolution approaching and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus favors Google's sustained edge amid evolving model iterations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGoogle 89%
ByteDance 4.0%
Pruna 3.6%
KlingAI 3.5%
$14,439 Vol.
$14,439 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
89%
ByteDance
4%
Pruna
4%
KlingAI
3%
Tencent
3%
Runway
3%
Lightricks
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
1%
Pixverse
1%
MiniMax
1%
Pika
<1%
Kandinsky
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Luma AI
<1%
Genmo AI
<1%
Meta
<1%
Google 89%
ByteDance 4.0%
Pruna 3.6%
KlingAI 3.5%
$14,439 Vol.
$14,439 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
$9,649 Vol.
89%
ByteDance
$483 Vol.
4%
Pruna
$300 Vol.
4%
KlingAI
$328 Vol.
3%
Tencent
$251 Vol.
3%
Runway
$338 Vol.
3%
Lightricks
$323 Vol.
1%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$246 Vol.
1%
Pixverse
$237 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$309 Vol.
1%
Pika
$369 Vol.
<1%
Kandinsky
$237 Vol.
<1%
OpenAI
$251 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$354 Vol.
<1%
Luma AI
$270 Vol.
<1%
Genmo AI
$309 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$186 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads text-to-video AI with state-of-the-art prompt adherence, realistic physics, 1080p/4K output, and native synchronized audio including dialogue, a capability few competitors match at scale. Recent 2026 updates enhanced image-to-video consistency, vertical format support for platforms like YouTube Shorts, and integration across Gemini, Vertex AI, and Google Vids, reinforcing enterprise and creator adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this positioning, as traders weigh Veo's benchmarks and broad availability against rivals like Kling 3.0 or Runway Gen-4.5, which trail in audio fidelity or consistent realism. With end-of-September resolution approaching and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus favors Google's sustained edge amid evolving model iterations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ET
Volume
$14,439End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's Veo 3.1 leads text-to-video AI with state-of-the-art prompt adherence, realistic physics, 1080p/4K output, and native synchronized audio including dialogue, a capability few competitors match at scale. Recent 2026 updates enhanced image-to-video consistency, vertical format support for platforms like YouTube Shorts, and integration across Gemini, Vertex AI, and Google Vids, reinforcing enterprise and creator adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this positioning, as traders weigh Veo's benchmarks and broad availability against rivals like Kling 3.0 or Runway Gen-4.5, which trail in audio fidelity or consistent realism. With end-of-September resolution approaching and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus favors Google's sustained edge amid evolving model iterations.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$14,439End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's Veo 3.1 leads text-to-video AI with state-of-the-art prompt adherence, realistic physics, 1080p/4K output, and native synchronized audio including dialogue, a capability few competitors match at scale. Recent 2026 updates enhanced image-to-video consistency, vertical format support for platforms like YouTube Shorts, and integration across Gemini, Vertex AI, and Google Vids, reinforcing enterprise and creator adoption. Market-implied odds reflect this positioning, as traders weigh Veo's benchmarks and broad availability against rivals like Kling 3.0 or Runway Gen-4.5, which trail in audio fidelity or consistent realism. With end-of-September resolution approaching and no major competing releases imminent, trader consensus favors Google's sustained edge amid evolving model iterations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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