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Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

icon for Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

$427,350 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$427,350 Vol.

Polymarket

Ryan Salame

$29,706 Vol.

23%

Matt Gaetz

$3,870 Vol.

21%

Donald Brodie

$1,266 Vol.

19%

Keonne Rodriguez

$17,294 Vol.

19%

Roger Stone

$3,947 Vol.

16%

Steve Bannon

$7,823 Vol.

15%

Daniel Penny

$508 Vol.

14%

Young Thug

$4,417 Vol.

13%

Stefan Brodie

$2,371 Vol.

12%

Joe Exotic

$5,364 Vol.

9%

Eric Adams

$1,058 Vol.

9%

Derek Chauvin

$22,831 Vol.

9%

Bob Menendez

$295 Vol.

8%

Roger Ver

$1,496 Vol.

8%

Julian Assange

$3,405 Vol.

6%

Martin Shkreli

$29,723 Vol.

6%

Ghislaine Maxwell

$22,819 Vol.

6%

Nicolas Maduro

$9,491 Vol.

6%

Himself

$12,576 Vol.

5%

Andrew Tate

$236 Vol.

5%

Sam Bankman-Fried

$128,922 Vol.

4%

Elizabeth Holmes

$3,571 Vol.

4%

Edward Snowden

$3,163 Vol.

4%

Diddy

$26,825 Vol.

4%

Do Kwon

$23,620 Vol.

4%

Antoine Massey

$2,352 Vol.

3%

Hunter Biden

$5,483 Vol.

3%

Elon Musk

$52,917 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, issuing over 1,700 pardons and commutations by mid-2026, including a day-one mass grant covering roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants, proclamations shielding 2020 fake electors participants such as Rudy Giuliani, and actions favoring crypto figures, fraud defendants, and politically connected individuals. Trader consensus on remaining candidates before the December 31, 2026 resolution reflects patterns of loyalty to longtime allies, alignment with administration priorities like cryptocurrency enforcement relief, and access through donors or insiders rather than the traditional Department of Justice process. Key variables include any further actions tied to election-related cases, high-profile supporters, or figures whose profiles match recent grants, alongside the short timeline before midterms and year-end. Resolution hinges on official White House or Department of Justice records confirming new grants within the window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$427,350
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 4, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump has exercised broad clemency authority in his second term, issuing over 1,700 pardons and commutations by mid-2026, including a day-one mass grant covering roughly 1,500 January 6 defendants, proclamations shielding 2020 fake electors participants such as Rudy Giuliani, and actions favoring crypto figures, fraud defendants, and politically connected individuals. Trader consensus on remaining candidates before the December 31, 2026 resolution reflects patterns of loyalty to longtime allies, alignment with administration priorities like cryptocurrency enforcement relief, and access through donors or insiders rather than the traditional Department of Justice process. Key variables include any further actions tied to election-related cases, high-profile supporters, or figures whose profiles match recent grants, alongside the short timeline before midterms and year-end. Resolution hinges on official White House or Department of Justice records confirming new grants within the window.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$427,350
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 10:46 AM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 28 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ryan Salame" at 23%, followed by "Matt Gaetz" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" has generated $427.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?," browse the 28 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" is "Ryan Salame" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Matt Gaetz" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Who will Trump pardon before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.