Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered Donald Trump a roughly 9.5-point margin in 2024, establishing a durable Republican baseline. The open seat—vacated by Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid—drew limited Democratic interest, while Michael Alfonso consolidated the Republican primary on August 11 with nearly 49 percent of the vote against several challengers. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Republican reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. A sizable national Democratic wave, unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties, or late personal or legal issues involving the Republican nominee remain the principal scenarios that could narrow the margin enough to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWI-07 House Election Winner
WI-07 House Election Winner
$39,308 Vol.
$39,308 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
9%
$39,308 Vol.
$39,308 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$20,931 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$18,377 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered Donald Trump a roughly 9.5-point margin in 2024, establishing a durable Republican baseline. The open seat—vacated by Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid—drew limited Democratic interest, while Michael Alfonso consolidated the Republican primary on August 11 with nearly 49 percent of the vote against several challengers. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Republican reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. A sizable national Democratic wave, unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties, or late personal or legal issues involving the Republican nominee remain the principal scenarios that could narrow the margin enough to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$39,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered Donald Trump a roughly 9.5-point margin in 2024, establishing a durable Republican baseline. The open seat—vacated by Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid—drew limited Democratic interest, while Michael Alfonso consolidated the Republican primary on August 11 with nearly 49 percent of the vote against several challengers. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Republican reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. A sizable national Democratic wave, unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties, or late personal or legal issues involving the Republican nominee remain the principal scenarios that could narrow the margin enough to alter the outcome before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,308End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 7th congressional district carries an R+11 Partisan Voter Index and delivered Donald Trump a roughly 9.5-point margin in 2024, establishing a durable Republican baseline. The open seat—vacated by Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid—drew limited Democratic interest, while Michael Alfonso consolidated the Republican primary on August 11 with nearly 49 percent of the vote against several challengers. Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball all classify the race Solid or Safe Republican. Trader consensus at 91.5 percent Republican reflects this structural advantage and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign developments. A sizable national Democratic wave, unusually high Democratic turnout in rural counties, or late personal or legal issues involving the Republican nominee remain the principal scenarios that could narrow the margin enough to alter the outcome before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions