**Trader sentiment favors "No" at 70% implied probability primarily because ultra-high-end sales above $150 million remain rare and heavily dependent on sporadic single-owner collections rather than steady market momentum.** In 2026 so far, standout results like Jackson Pollock’s *Number 7A* at $181 million in May demonstrate that trophy modern works can still command nine figures when fresh-to-market masterpieces from estates such as the S.I. Newhouse collection appear. However, autumn marquee sales are projected to total $1.2–1.6 billion across the major houses—solid but without confirmed lots positioned to match or exceed that threshold. The market’s top tier has shown resilience, with sales above $10 million rising sharply, yet supply of true eight- and nine-figure blue-chip pieces stays uneven and concentrated in a handful of events. Key upcoming catalysts include November auctions at Christie’s and Sotheby’s, where any unexpected high-estimate modern or Impressionist consignment could shift odds. Absent such catalysts, historical patterns of infrequent $150 million+ transactions support the current consensus that no additional sale will clear the mark before December 31.