Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest heading into Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and both the FDP and BSW hover near or below the five-percent threshold. This fragmented outcome, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus district lists, drives uncertainty over final seat totals because overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat statutory minimum whenever direct-mandate winners exceed proportional entitlements. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current projections range widely depending on which parties secure the most constituency victories and how vote shares translate under Hare/Niemeyer allocation. Recent developments—including the CDU’s candidate change, Linke gains, expanded youth suffrage, and fewer parties on the ballot—have kept constituency-level dynamics fluid, preventing traders from converging on any single size band. Late shifts in turnout or direct-mandate margins could still widen or narrow the final total before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<143 22%
158–162 21%
143–147 19%
163+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
22%
143–147
19%
148–152
15%
153–157
16%
158–162
21%
163+
16%
<143 22%
158–162 21%
143–147 19%
163+ 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<143
$790 Vol.
22%
143–147
$989 Vol.
19%
148–152
$130 Vol.
15%
153–157
$191 Vol.
16%
158–162
$889 Vol.
21%
163+
$364 Vol.
16%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest heading into Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and both the FDP and BSW hover near or below the five-percent threshold. This fragmented outcome, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus district lists, drives uncertainty over final seat totals because overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat statutory minimum whenever direct-mandate winners exceed proportional entitlements. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current projections range widely depending on which parties secure the most constituency victories and how vote shares translate under Hare/Niemeyer allocation. Recent developments—including the CDU’s candidate change, Linke gains, expanded youth suffrage, and fewer parties on the ballot—have kept constituency-level dynamics fluid, preventing traders from converging on any single size band. Late shifts in turnout or direct-mandate margins could still widen or narrow the final total before resolution.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,353End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest heading into Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and both the FDP and BSW hover near or below the five-percent threshold. This fragmented outcome, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus district lists, drives uncertainty over final seat totals because overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat statutory minimum whenever direct-mandate winners exceed proportional entitlements. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current projections range widely depending on which parties secure the most constituency victories and how vote shares translate under Hare/Niemeyer allocation. Recent developments—including the CDU’s candidate change, Linke gains, expanded youth suffrage, and fewer parties on the ballot—have kept constituency-level dynamics fluid, preventing traders from converging on any single size band. Late shifts in turnout or direct-mandate margins could still widen or narrow the final total before resolution.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,353End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest heading into Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election, with Die Linke and the CDU each near 20-23 percent, followed closely by the AfD and Greens, while the SPD trails and both the FDP and BSW hover near or below the five-percent threshold. This fragmented outcome, combined with the mixed-member proportional system of 78 constituencies plus district lists, drives uncertainty over final seat totals because overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber beyond its 130-seat statutory minimum whenever direct-mandate winners exceed proportional entitlements. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats under similar mechanics; current projections range widely depending on which parties secure the most constituency victories and how vote shares translate under Hare/Niemeyer allocation. Recent developments—including the CDU’s candidate change, Linke gains, expanded youth suffrage, and fewer parties on the ballot—have kept constituency-level dynamics fluid, preventing traders from converging on any single size band. Late shifts in turnout or direct-mandate margins could still widen or narrow the final total before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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