Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU running within 1–3 points of each other near 20–23 percent, with the AfD close behind at 17–18 percent and the SPD trailing at 10–12 percent, producing a fragmented field four days before the 20 September vote. This positioning, combined with the withdrawal of incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, has kept the expected margin of victory narrow. Traders have priced the highest probabilities on Linke finishing 0–2 percent or 2–5 percent ahead, followed by comparable AfD and CDU margins, reflecting the tight, multi-party contest and limited remaining campaign time for decisive shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLinke 0-2% 45%
Linke 2-5% 27%
AfD 0-2% 22%
AfD 2-5% 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
45%
Linke 2-5%
27%
Linke 5-10%
15%
Linke 10%+
14%
CDU 0-2%
18%
CDU 2-5%
17%
CDU 5-10%
7%
CDU 10%+
7%
AfD 0-2%
22%
AfD 2-5%
21%
AfD 5%+
12%
Another party wins
9%
Linke 0-2% 45%
Linke 2-5% 27%
AfD 0-2% 22%
AfD 2-5% 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Linke 0-2%
$20 Vol.
45%
Linke 2-5%
$0 Vol.
27%
Linke 5-10%
$0 Vol.
15%
Linke 10%+
$0 Vol.
14%
CDU 0-2%
$0 Vol.
18%
CDU 2-5%
$0 Vol.
17%
CDU 5-10%
$0 Vol.
7%
CDU 10%+
$0 Vol.
7%
AfD 0-2%
$0 Vol.
22%
AfD 2-5%
$0 Vol.
21%
AfD 5%+
$0 Vol.
12%
Another party wins
$0 Vol.
9%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU running within 1–3 points of each other near 20–23 percent, with the AfD close behind at 17–18 percent and the SPD trailing at 10–12 percent, producing a fragmented field four days before the 20 September vote. This positioning, combined with the withdrawal of incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, has kept the expected margin of victory narrow. Traders have priced the highest probabilities on Linke finishing 0–2 percent or 2–5 percent ahead, followed by comparable AfD and CDU margins, reflecting the tight, multi-party contest and limited remaining campaign time for decisive shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU running within 1–3 points of each other near 20–23 percent, with the AfD close behind at 17–18 percent and the SPD trailing at 10–12 percent, producing a fragmented field four days before the 20 September vote. This positioning, combined with the withdrawal of incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, has kept the expected margin of victory narrow. Traders have priced the highest probabilities on Linke finishing 0–2 percent or 2–5 percent ahead, followed by comparable AfD and CDU margins, reflecting the tight, multi-party contest and limited remaining campaign time for decisive shifts.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show Die Linke and the CDU running within 1–3 points of each other near 20–23 percent, with the AfD close behind at 17–18 percent and the SPD trailing at 10–12 percent, producing a fragmented field four days before the 20 September vote. This positioning, combined with the withdrawal of incumbent Mayor Kai Wegner and the CDU’s shift to Stefan Evers as lead candidate, has kept the expected margin of victory narrow. Traders have priced the highest probabilities on Linke finishing 0–2 percent or 2–5 percent ahead, followed by comparable AfD and CDU margins, reflecting the tight, multi-party contest and limited remaining campaign time for decisive shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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