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World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

icon for Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
World·Germany

Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?

No Next Chancellor before 2028 49%

Boris Pistorius 16%

Hendrik Wüst 12%

Markus Söder 8%

Polymarket
NEW

No Next Chancellor before 2028 49%

Boris Pistorius 16%

Hendrik Wüst 12%

Markus Söder 8%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for No Next Chancellor before 2028

No Next Chancellor before 2028

$705 Vol.

49%

icon for Boris Pistorius

Boris Pistorius

$341 Vol.

16%

icon for Hendrik Wüst

Hendrik Wüst

$66 Vol.

12%

icon for Markus Söder

Markus Söder

$67 Vol.

8%

icon for Felix Banaszak

Felix Banaszak

$23 Vol.

6%

icon for Katharina Dröge

Katharina Dröge

$59 Vol.

5%

icon for Tino Chrupalla

Tino Chrupalla

$49 Vol.

4%

icon for Lars Klingbeil

Lars Klingbeil

$23 Vol.

4%

icon for Alice Weidel

Alice Weidel

$103 Vol.

3%

icon for Sahra Wagenknecht

Sahra Wagenknecht

$49 Vol.

2%

icon for Jens Spahn

Jens Spahn

$41 Vol.

2%

icon for Carsten Linnemann

Carsten Linnemann

$23 Vol.

2%

icon for Heidi Reichinnek

Heidi Reichinnek

$23 Vol.

2%

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing crisis around Chancellor Friedrich Merz, triggered by the CDU’s heavy losses to the AfD in the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election and subsequent poor polling, has intensified speculation over an early leadership transition within the CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition. Low approval ratings for Merz and internal party pressure have elevated names such as Boris Pistorius, Hendrik Wüst, and Markus Söder as potential successors, yet the fluid situation—marked by coalition negotiations, upcoming state votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, and resistance to a snap election—keeps individual probabilities fragmented and modest. Trader consensus reflects the high bar for replacing an incumbent mid-term and the possibility that Merz survives until the 2029 cycle, sustaining near-even odds between change and continuity before 2028.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,571
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing crisis around Chancellor Friedrich Merz, triggered by the CDU’s heavy losses to the AfD in the September 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election and subsequent poor polling, has intensified speculation over an early leadership transition within the CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition. Low approval ratings for Merz and internal party pressure have elevated names such as Boris Pistorius, Hendrik Wüst, and Markus Söder as potential successors, yet the fluid situation—marked by coalition negotiations, upcoming state votes in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin, and resistance to a snap election—keeps individual probabilities fragmented and modest. Trader consensus reflects the high bar for replacing an incumbent mid-term and the possibility that Merz survives until the 2029 cycle, sustaining near-even odds between change and continuity before 2028.

Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.

This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.

To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025. This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany. To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President. Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Chancellor before 2028”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$1,571
End Date
Jan 1, 2028
Market Opened
Sep 15, 2026, 5:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 13 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 49%, followed by "Boris Pistorius" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 49¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?," browse the 13 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" is "No Next Chancellor before 2028" at 49%, meaning the market assigns a 49% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Boris Pistorius" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Chancellor of Germany before 2028?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.