Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16-22 percent and separated by margins within sampling error. This narrow spread among the leading contenders directly sustains elevated trader probabilities for AfD, Grüne, and CDU finishing third, while smaller parties such as SPD and Linke trail with far lower implied odds. Coalition fatigue with the incumbent CDU-SPD government, combined with shifting voter priorities on housing, security, and infrastructure, continues to drive volatility in the middle of the field. Minor swings in turnout or late campaign events could easily reorder the top four parties and alter the third-place outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 35%
Grüne 29%
CDU 27%
SPD 8.6%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
35%
Grüne
29%
CDU
27%
SPD
9%
Linke
9%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 35%
Grüne 29%
CDU 27%
SPD 8.6%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Vol.
35%
Grüne
$3,681 Vol.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Vol.
27%
SPD
$1,268 Vol.
9%
Linke
$4,578 Vol.
9%
FDP
$674 Vol.
<1%
FW
$582 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$750 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16-22 percent and separated by margins within sampling error. This narrow spread among the leading contenders directly sustains elevated trader probabilities for AfD, Grüne, and CDU finishing third, while smaller parties such as SPD and Linke trail with far lower implied odds. Coalition fatigue with the incumbent CDU-SPD government, combined with shifting voter priorities on housing, security, and infrastructure, continues to drive volatility in the middle of the field. Minor swings in turnout or late campaign events could easily reorder the top four parties and alter the third-place outcome before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16-22 percent and separated by margins within sampling error. This narrow spread among the leading contenders directly sustains elevated trader probabilities for AfD, Grüne, and CDU finishing third, while smaller parties such as SPD and Linke trail with far lower implied odds. Coalition fatigue with the incumbent CDU-SPD government, combined with shifting voter priorities on housing, security, and infrastructure, continues to drive volatility in the middle of the field. Minor swings in turnout or late campaign events could easily reorder the top four parties and alter the third-place outcome before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 Abgeordnetenhaus election show a fragmented contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne, each clustered between roughly 16-22 percent and separated by margins within sampling error. This narrow spread among the leading contenders directly sustains elevated trader probabilities for AfD, Grüne, and CDU finishing third, while smaller parties such as SPD and Linke trail with far lower implied odds. Coalition fatigue with the incumbent CDU-SPD government, combined with shifting voter priorities on housing, security, and infrastructure, continues to drive volatility in the middle of the field. Minor swings in turnout or late campaign events could easily reorder the top four parties and alter the third-place outcome before election day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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