Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16–22 percent and the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition facing low approval. This competitiveness, combined with the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters (adding roughly 55,000 eligible participants), expanded postal-voting infrastructure targeting an expected 45 percent absentee share, and elevated mobilization by parties that have reported membership gains, has supported expectations of higher participation than the 62.9 percent recorded in the 2023 repeat election. Broader context includes the high 82.5 percent federal turnout in 2025 and stronger participation in other recent state votes, reflecting sustained voter engagement amid dissatisfaction with economic and policy issues. These factors align with the market's current 71 percent implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUp
85% chance
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NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Up
85% chance
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Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16–22 percent and the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition facing low approval. This competitiveness, combined with the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters (adding roughly 55,000 eligible participants), expanded postal-voting infrastructure targeting an expected 45 percent absentee share, and elevated mobilization by parties that have reported membership gains, has supported expectations of higher participation than the 62.9 percent recorded in the 2023 repeat election. Broader context includes the high 82.5 percent federal turnout in 2025 and stronger participation in other recent state votes, reflecting sustained voter engagement amid dissatisfaction with economic and policy issues. These factors align with the market's current 71 percent implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior benchmark.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ET
Volume
$2,261End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16–22 percent and the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition facing low approval. This competitiveness, combined with the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters (adding roughly 55,000 eligible participants), expanded postal-voting infrastructure targeting an expected 45 percent absentee share, and elevated mobilization by parties that have reported membership gains, has supported expectations of higher participation than the 62.9 percent recorded in the 2023 repeat election. Broader context includes the high 82.5 percent federal turnout in 2025 and stronger participation in other recent state votes, reflecting sustained voter engagement amid dissatisfaction with economic and policy issues. These factors align with the market's current 71 percent implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior benchmark.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the turnout in the specified election is higher than 62.9%.
This market will resolve to "Down" if the turnout in the specified election is lower than 62.9%.
If the reported turnout is exactly 62.9%, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the specified election, defined as the total number of voters who participated, divided by the total number of eligible voters. Qualifying figures must be final; preliminary results will not be considered.
The level of precision considered will be one decimal place; if presented otherwise, the figure will be rounded to one decimal place before comparison.
If voting in the specified election does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based solely on the finalized official results as published by the authoritative sources such as the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin (https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/) and the Amt für Statistik Berlin-Brandenburg (https://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de/wahlen-berlin/).
Volume
$2,261End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 8:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows a tight multi-party contest for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with the Linke, CDU, AfD, and Greens clustered between roughly 16–22 percent and the incumbent CDU-SPD coalition facing low approval. This competitiveness, combined with the first-time inclusion of 16- and 17-year-old voters (adding roughly 55,000 eligible participants), expanded postal-voting infrastructure targeting an expected 45 percent absentee share, and elevated mobilization by parties that have reported membership gains, has supported expectations of higher participation than the 62.9 percent recorded in the 2023 repeat election. Broader context includes the high 82.5 percent federal turnout in 2025 and stronger participation in other recent state votes, reflecting sustained voter engagement amid dissatisfaction with economic and policy issues. These factors align with the market's current 71 percent implied probability that turnout will exceed the prior benchmark.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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