**Persistent inflation above the 3% target, with June readings at 6.1% and end-2026 analyst expectations at 6.6%, continues to anchor expectations for a steady policy stance at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting.** The central bank held rates at 12% in its July decision by a narrow 4-3 vote after the prior 75-basis-point hike, reflecting a preference for a high-for-long approach amid lags in monetary transmission. Recent Colombian peso appreciation—equivalent to additional tightening—has eased imported price pressures and supported the case for pausing, consistent with analyst surveys from Fedesarrollo and the central bank itself projecting unchanged rates through year-end. Strong labor market conditions and robust wage growth add to upside risks, yet the recent shift in consensus from anticipated hikes to a hold has elevated the implied probability of no change to 81%. A modest 11.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase persists due to inflation inertia, while downside moves remain remote given the restrictive stance and elevated price expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 81%
25 bps increase 11.2%
50+ bps increase 7.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$22,009 Vol.
$22,009 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
4%
No change
81%
25 bps increase
11%
50+ bps increase
7%
No change 81%
25 bps increase 11.2%
50+ bps increase 7.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$22,009 Vol.
$22,009 Vol.
Sep 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,044 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$804 Vol.
4%
No change
$9,417 Vol.
81%
25 bps increase
$8,918 Vol.
11%
50+ bps increase
$1,825 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation above the 3% target, with June readings at 6.1% and end-2026 analyst expectations at 6.6%, continues to anchor expectations for a steady policy stance at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting.** The central bank held rates at 12% in its July decision by a narrow 4-3 vote after the prior 75-basis-point hike, reflecting a preference for a high-for-long approach amid lags in monetary transmission. Recent Colombian peso appreciation—equivalent to additional tightening—has eased imported price pressures and supported the case for pausing, consistent with analyst surveys from Fedesarrollo and the central bank itself projecting unchanged rates through year-end. Strong labor market conditions and robust wage growth add to upside risks, yet the recent shift in consensus from anticipated hikes to a hold has elevated the implied probability of no change to 81%. A modest 11.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase persists due to inflation inertia, while downside moves remain remote given the restrictive stance and elevated price expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$22,009End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent inflation above the 3% target, with June readings at 6.1% and end-2026 analyst expectations at 6.6%, continues to anchor expectations for a steady policy stance at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting.** The central bank held rates at 12% in its July decision by a narrow 4-3 vote after the prior 75-basis-point hike, reflecting a preference for a high-for-long approach amid lags in monetary transmission. Recent Colombian peso appreciation—equivalent to additional tightening—has eased imported price pressures and supported the case for pausing, consistent with analyst surveys from Fedesarrollo and the central bank itself projecting unchanged rates through year-end. Strong labor market conditions and robust wage growth add to upside risks, yet the recent shift in consensus from anticipated hikes to a hold has elevated the implied probability of no change to 81%. A modest 11.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase persists due to inflation inertia, while downside moves remain remote given the restrictive stance and elevated price expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the monetary policy interest rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Central Bank of Colombia (Banco de la Republica), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Central Bank of Colombia, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 30, 2026, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar (https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Central Bank of Colombia's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$22,009End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the 3% target, with June readings at 6.1% and end-2026 analyst expectations at 6.6%, continues to anchor expectations for a steady policy stance at the Banco de la República’s September 30 meeting.** The central bank held rates at 12% in its July decision by a narrow 4-3 vote after the prior 75-basis-point hike, reflecting a preference for a high-for-long approach amid lags in monetary transmission. Recent Colombian peso appreciation—equivalent to additional tightening—has eased imported price pressures and supported the case for pausing, consistent with analyst surveys from Fedesarrollo and the central bank itself projecting unchanged rates through year-end. Strong labor market conditions and robust wage growth add to upside risks, yet the recent shift in consensus from anticipated hikes to a hold has elevated the implied probability of no change to 81%. A modest 11.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase persists due to inflation inertia, while downside moves remain remote given the restrictive stance and elevated price expectations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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