The Charlesbourg riding in Quebec’s Capitale-Nationale region features a competitive contest among Éloïse Coulombe (Conservative Party of Quebec), Gabriel Coulombe (Parti Québécois), Marie-Josée Morency (Coalition Avenir Québec), Seynabou Top (Quebec Liberal Party), and Georges Goma (Québec solidaire), following the August 27, 2026, dissolution of the National Assembly and the October 5 election date. With no incumbent seeking re-election, trader pricing remains tightly clustered because early provincial polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois narrowly ahead at roughly 29 percent, the CAQ at 24 percent, the Liberals at 22 percent, and the Conservatives at 15 percent, while 42 percent of decided voters describe their preference as fluid. Local 338Canada and Qc125 projections mirror this volatility, placing the riding in toss-up territory among the Conservatives, PQ, and CAQ on the strength of party vote shares rather than decisive local differentiation. Candidate announcements earlier in 2026 and the absence of major late-breaking events have kept implied probabilities compressed, with separation likely to emerge from subsequent riding-specific polling, leader debates, or shifts in undecided voter firmness before nomination close on September 17.