Skip to main content
icon for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

icon for Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner

Daniel Gobeil 56%

Caroline Dubé 37%

Régis Gaudreault 3.6%

Polymarket

$35,262 Vol.

Daniel Gobeil 56%

Caroline Dubé 37%

Régis Gaudreault 3.6%

Polymarket

$35,262 Vol.

icon for Daniel Gobeil

Daniel Gobeil

$16,740 Vol.

56%

icon for Caroline Dubé

Caroline Dubé

$10,906 Vol.

37%

icon for Régis Gaudreault

Régis Gaudreault

$7,616 Vol.

4%

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).The Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, scheduled for August 31, 2026, features a narrow contest driven by the recent vacancy after former Conservative MP Richard Martel’s Senate appointment. Daniel Gobeil’s modest edge reflects the Liberal Party’s campaign infrastructure, targeted outreach to dairy producers on supply management, and Gobeil’s profile as a regional agricultural leader with deep local roots in a riding containing significant farming interests. Caroline Dubé’s position for the Bloc Québécois highlights ongoing competition over Quebec-specific priorities, while the Conservative candidate trails amid limited recent momentum. With early voting underway and the short campaign window, further separation among contenders will likely hinge on turnout among key voting blocs and any late developments in federal-provincial relations or trade policy.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$35,262
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).The Chicoutimi—Le Fjord federal by-election, scheduled for August 31, 2026, features a narrow contest driven by the recent vacancy after former Conservative MP Richard Martel’s Senate appointment. Daniel Gobeil’s modest edge reflects the Liberal Party’s campaign infrastructure, targeted outreach to dairy producers on supply management, and Gobeil’s profile as a regional agricultural leader with deep local roots in a riding containing significant farming interests. Caroline Dubé’s position for the Bloc Québécois highlights ongoing competition over Quebec-specific priorities, while the Conservative candidate trails amid limited recent momentum. With early voting underway and the short campaign window, further separation among contenders will likely hinge on turnout among key voting blocs and any late developments in federal-provincial relations or trade policy.

A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
Volume
$35,262
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).

Related

icon for Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

Will Braeden Caley win the 2026 North Vancouver—Capilano by-election?

98%
icon for Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

Will Mike Derry win the 2026 Calgary-Shaw provincial by-election?

68%
icon for Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?

Will Heino Doessing win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?

44%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Daniel Gobeil" at 56%, followed by "Caroline Dubé" at 37%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 56¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" has generated $35.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 29, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" is "Daniel Gobeil" at 56%, meaning the market assigns a 56% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Caroline Dubé" at 37%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Chicoutimi—Le Fjord By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.