Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 40–50 tweets daily amid ongoing commentary on politics, immigration, and SpaceX updates, anchors trader expectations for the August 21–28 window near 200–259 posts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across the 180–199, 200–219, and 220–239 bins reflects uncertainty over weekend volume and any late-week catalysts such as Starship progress or Tesla developments that could push activity higher. Historical weekly totals in similar quiet periods have settled in this range, while bursts of engagement on viral threads or major announcements remain the main swing factors that could differentiate the frontrunners before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated200-219 19%
180-199 18%
220-239 17%
240-259 14%
$593,638 Vol.
$593,638 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
<1%
120-139
1%
140-159
4%
160-179
10%
180-199
18%
200-219
19%
220-239
17%
240-259
14%
260-279
9%
280-299
5%
300-319
3%
320-339
2%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 19%
180-199 18%
220-239 17%
240-259 14%
$593,638 Vol.
$593,638 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
60-79
$18,277 Vol.
<1%
80-99
$30,692 Vol.
<1%
100-119
$31,315 Vol.
<1%
120-139
$26,804 Vol.
1%
140-159
$30,211 Vol.
4%
160-179
$23,672 Vol.
10%
180-199
$18,975 Vol.
18%
200-219
$12,182 Vol.
19%
220-239
$5,191 Vol.
17%
240-259
$6,354 Vol.
14%
260-279
$8,529 Vol.
9%
280-299
$17,261 Vol.
5%
300-319
$17,771 Vol.
3%
320-339
$18,777 Vol.
2%
340-359
$22,443 Vol.
1%
360-379
$14,988 Vol.
1%
380-399
$40,288 Vol.
<1%
400-419
$34,185 Vol.
<1%
420-439
$28,092 Vol.
<1%
440-459
$32,194 Vol.
<1%
460-479
$34,191 Vol.
<1%
480-499
$32,593 Vol.
<1%
500+
$56,878 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 40–50 tweets daily amid ongoing commentary on politics, immigration, and SpaceX updates, anchors trader expectations for the August 21–28 window near 200–259 posts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across the 180–199, 200–219, and 220–239 bins reflects uncertainty over weekend volume and any late-week catalysts such as Starship progress or Tesla developments that could push activity higher. Historical weekly totals in similar quiet periods have settled in this range, while bursts of engagement on viral threads or major announcements remain the main swing factors that could differentiate the frontrunners before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Volume
$593,638End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 40–50 tweets daily amid ongoing commentary on politics, immigration, and SpaceX updates, anchors trader expectations for the August 21–28 window near 200–259 posts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across the 180–199, 200–219, and 220–239 bins reflects uncertainty over weekend volume and any late-week catalysts such as Starship progress or Tesla developments that could push activity higher. Historical weekly totals in similar quiet periods have settled in this range, while bursts of engagement on viral threads or major announcements remain the main swing factors that could differentiate the frontrunners before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 21 12:00 PM ET to August 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$593,638End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent posting cadence on X, averaging roughly 40–50 tweets daily amid ongoing commentary on politics, immigration, and SpaceX updates, anchors trader expectations for the August 21–28 window near 200–259 posts. The tight clustering of implied probabilities across the 180–199, 200–219, and 220–239 bins reflects uncertainty over weekend volume and any late-week catalysts such as Starship progress or Tesla developments that could push activity higher. Historical weekly totals in similar quiet periods have settled in this range, while bursts of engagement on viral threads or major announcements remain the main swing factors that could differentiate the frontrunners before the period closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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