Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race due to his broad coalition support, high approval ratings around 76 percent, and consistent leads in recent polls showing 38-41 percent in first-round scenarios against main challengers. The October 4 first-round election (with possible runoff on October 25) features five confirmed candidates, including Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) as the nearest rival. Traders assign Ferraço a 91 percent implied probability based on his incumbency advantages, legislative experience, and policy continuity on fiscal management and public security. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include a surge by opposition candidates or late shifts in voter turnout among the state’s 2.9 million eligible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEspírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Espírito Santo Governor Election Winner
Ricardo Ferraço 92%
Lorenzo Pazolini 8%
Sergio Vidigal 1.0%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
$18,653 Vol.
$18,653 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
92%
Lorenzo Pazolini
8%
Sergio Vidigal
1%
Arnaldinho Borgo
1%
Euclério Sampaio
<1%
Ricardo Ferraço 92%
Lorenzo Pazolini 8%
Sergio Vidigal 1.0%
Arnaldinho Borgo <1%
$18,653 Vol.
$18,653 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Ricardo Ferraço
$9,511 Vol.
92%
Lorenzo Pazolini
$5,070 Vol.
8%
Sergio Vidigal
$912 Vol.
1%
Arnaldinho Borgo
$2,187 Vol.
1%
Euclério Sampaio
$974 Vol.
<1%
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race due to his broad coalition support, high approval ratings around 76 percent, and consistent leads in recent polls showing 38-41 percent in first-round scenarios against main challengers. The October 4 first-round election (with possible runoff on October 25) features five confirmed candidates, including Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) as the nearest rival. Traders assign Ferraço a 91 percent implied probability based on his incumbency advantages, legislative experience, and policy continuity on fiscal management and public security. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include a surge by opposition candidates or late shifts in voter turnout among the state’s 2.9 million eligible voters.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ET
Volume
$18,653End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race due to his broad coalition support, high approval ratings around 76 percent, and consistent leads in recent polls showing 38-41 percent in first-round scenarios against main challengers. The October 4 first-round election (with possible runoff on October 25) features five confirmed candidates, including Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) as the nearest rival. Traders assign Ferraço a 91 percent implied probability based on his incumbency advantages, legislative experience, and policy continuity on fiscal management and public security. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include a surge by opposition candidates or late shifts in voter turnout among the state’s 2.9 million eligible voters.
The Espírito Santo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$18,653End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Jun 12, 2026, 10:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ricardo Ferraço (MDB), the incumbent governor who assumed office in April 2026 after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, holds a commanding position in the Espírito Santo gubernatorial race due to his broad coalition support, high approval ratings around 76 percent, and consistent leads in recent polls showing 38-41 percent in first-round scenarios against main challengers. The October 4 first-round election (with possible runoff on October 25) features five confirmed candidates, including Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) as the nearest rival. Traders assign Ferraço a 91 percent implied probability based on his incumbency advantages, legislative experience, and policy continuity on fiscal management and public security. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include a surge by opposition candidates or late shifts in voter turnout among the state’s 2.9 million eligible voters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions